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东欧的日益增长的威权主义将撕裂欧盟分开吗?

On Monday, Poland’s Supreme Court upheld the narrow victory of President Andrzej Duda in last month’s elections. The outcome had been反对支持者挑战, but in the end the country’s conservative Law and Justice party will remain in power.

波兰和匈牙利是东欧的民粹主义专制主义越来越多的最明显的例子,这可能会影响欧盟运作的能力。民粹主义杜达的重新选举在欧盟内重新出现痛苦的差异关于法治的重要性。

争议的法治问题

最近的协议在下一代欧盟交易中被誉为欧盟历史上的定义时刻。如果欧洲议会和未来几个月的国家立法机构通过,它肯定有可能达到期望。

The ambitious compromise was possible despite the many differences between the many conflicting souls of the union, particularly between the so-called “frugal four” (Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden, who initially opposed any deal) and theVISEGRAD国家(Hungary, Poland and the Czech and Slovak republics, all wary of more strict EU punishments of the rule of law breaches within their countries). In the end, the frugals had to give up more terrain than Poland and Hungary on the rule of law.

日益增长的法治问题仅仅是解决by a vague passage in the deal promising that the Council “underlines the importance of the respect of the rule of law,” and that “a regime of conditionality” to protect the budget and Next Generation EU will be introduced. “In this context, the Commission will propose measures in case of breaches for adoption by the Council by qualified majority. The European Council will revert rapidly to the matter.”

Sanctioning Democratic Breaches

EU rules already allow for sanctions to be imposed in case of democratic breaches, but they are hard to implement. Many EU leaders, concerned by the increasing authoritarianism of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and seemingly similar developments in Poland, want something more direct.

实际上,与早期承诺的艰难条件相比,所谓的恢复计划腭中的模糊语言。令人惊讶的是,波兰总理Mateusz Morawiecki强调,法治与该交易中的资金之间没有直接联系。

欧洲委员会,立法者,专家和活动家都越来越担心自由受到波兰和匈牙利的威胁。

The mechanism has yet to be created by a group headed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and is to be accepted by the European Council later on. It is difficult to imagine that she will spend too much political capital on getting tough with countries that still use the history of past domination by Germany and Russia, in particular, to proudly defend their independence.

默克尔的优先事项仍然是“将商店保持在一起”,换句话说,避免进一步发散或更糟糕的是从欧盟出口。从她的角度来看,谈判期间的VISEGRAD国家的行为应该被视为令人鼓舞。

It is now clear that the Visegrad Group’s geopolitical and economic priorities still lie very much within the EU, and there is little appetite to question the union, at least as long as its center, the EU Commission, is constrained in its ability to impose sanctions against them. Poland, in particular, will continue to use the EU for economic reasons, while welcoming United States troops and defense systems to bolster its own defense against any potential Russian aggression.

欧盟将容纳Visegrad集团集团

匈牙利’s Prime Minister Orban is much more ambivalent about Russia, but still a staunch defender of the EU (or his idea of it) when push comes to shove. At the same time, the deep differences between the Visegrad countries represent the weakness of the group. Populists tend to form ad hoc alliances and can quickly turn on each other when conditions change. Within the EU, I could name a few loose ad hoc alliances that have a very elastic concept of internal cohesion.

Their existence is not, per se, a threat to the union; rather, these groups form when bigger and more powerful countries come together to pull the EU in one direction, as was the case during recent negotiations on the recovery fund.

27个国家的集团的本质使亚组不可避免,取决于他们试图面临的挑战。这并不是说法则关注的担忧应该轻描淡写,特别是如果欧盟真的打算填补美国政府的欧洲许多人的感知道德空白,那么欧洲的许多人感到困境。

欧洲委员会,立法者,专家和活动家都越来越担心自由受到波兰和匈牙利的威胁。Bulgaria and Romania are also cited as examples of countries with a questionable track record facing serious and widespread corruption challenges.

辩论不会消失

As the EU moves forward on the need to start building a more resilient fiscal union, the question about the need for a new architecture and better decision-making processes will gain more traction. It is inevitable that the debate about the advantages or disadvantages of a multi-speed Europe will become once again more pressing. For now, Europeans can take comfort in the fact that, despite their deep differences, difficult decisions can still be taken.

The rule of law debate will continue to simmer. How it will evolve in the near future will also, in great part, depend on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November.

Alexander Privitera

欧洲事务负责人在Commerzbank AG和Brind Classist

Alexander Privitera is nonresident fellow at the Washington based think tank AICGS, Johns Hopkins University. He is also head of European affairs at Commerzbank AG.

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