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为什么金融市场不在气候变化的成本上定价 - 以及该怎么办

A major report recently released by United States federal regulators warns that climate change is starting to disrupt U.S. financial markets, as the costs of wildfires, floods and droughts penetrate insurance and mortgage markets.

那个报告by the bipartisan Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC) lays out how escalating risks for insurance, mortgage and bond markets could lead to a breakdown in markets and much higher prices for everything from insurance to food.

在关于CFTC报告的三部分中的第一个,Leonardo Martinez-Diaz, the Global Director of the Sustainable Finance Center at the World Resources Institute, and a lead author of the report, spoke to BRINK about the consequences of financial markets not pricing for climate change.

Leonardo Martinez-Diaz:整体而言,市场尚未完全内化,即在发生气候变化的影响。他们在真实资产世界中表现出来:由于飓风和洪水,由于野火而破坏资产的破坏,经济活动中断。That’s happening all across the U.S.而且,事实上,世界各地。

什么都没有完全发生,尚未翻译这些风险和影响资产价格。我们在这里和孤立的剧集中看到它。但正如我们在报告中指出的那样,在物理影响和过渡影响方面,市场尚未在气候风险中系统地定价。

边缘:If they’re not passing the risk on in terms of pricing, that means someone must be holding onto this risk. So where is the risk currently residing in the financial markets?

MARTINEZ-DIAZ: So far, most of that risk is being cushioned by shock absorbers — we talk about this at the end of chapter three. Basically the government, which in many cases act as an insurer of last resort, is absorbing a good part of the losses through programs like crop insurance, flood insurance and disaster assistance to states and cities in the aftermath of disasters.

在其他情况下,它是吸收损失的私人保险。这些保险公司在许多情况下,尚未制造的违反谋取决定,例如大大增加其保费或拉出市场,那么改变将引发这种更大的风险重新评估。

在其他情况下,风险是故意或意外的定色调。您认为,在过时的洪水地图中反映,或者在公司的曝光对高碳资产方面看到市场中的一些不透明度,如果这些资产的价值突然下降,可能会发生什么。因此,这是一种减少损失的减震器的混合,因此将其余的市场归于与他们打交道,并对这些风险的资产价格的规模和范围进行了不完整的反映。

突然调整的危险

边缘:市场会充分开始定价如何?

Martinez-Diaz:嗯,答案对于过渡风险和身体风险是不同的。在身体风险的情况下,我认为它会采取的是两件事。首先,了解这些事件的规模。到目前为止,人们认为,“很好,极端事件是情节,他们是本地化的,他们不会超越全国的非常特别的部分,他们并非都同时到来。因此,系统可以处理它们。“当我们看到同时或接近时,我们看到多个非常大的比例事件开始分解。

The other wake-up call involves the shock absorbers: How much can the government and private insurance markets really absorb? As we say in the report, if these shock absorbers were to be called into question, then there’d be a very abrupt wake-up call for the markets. That’s exactly the kind of abrupt adjustment that we’re trying to avoid, by getting smart about the challenge earlier, while there is still time.

在过渡风险的情况下,唤醒呼叫是政策,技术和消费者偏好以基本的方式改变的看法。在大厅失败后长期以来,在美国贸易和贸易失败后,有一种感觉,我们远远不受重大政策变革的任何实际可能性。

但越来越多,人们开始理解,政策和技术转变比以往任何时候都更有可能,并且我们可能会在气候政治和政策方面接近一个小费。

气候风险不会一次打击金融体系,但这些机构的削弱肯定会破坏该国许多地方的生计和社区。

无数的子系统震动

Martinez-Diaz:这份报告的更原始的贡献之一是提请注意我们在报告中所谓的“子系统震动”的重要性。

金融监管机构倾向于专注于可能带来全部金融体系的风险。但报告指出,气候风险还可以面对地区银行,农业银行,社区银行和较小金融机构以及区域保险市场。

这些风险不会一次打击金融体系,但这些机构的削弱肯定会破坏该国许多地区的生计和社区。这不是引起了它所需的注意的东西。

边缘:I suppose that points to one of the characteristics of climate change, which is that it’s a kind of rolling event, right?

马丁内斯 - 迪亚兹:那是对的。您可以看到这些子系统震动的积累作为慢动作的系统危机,随着时间的推移,可能导致金融体系的能力下降到服务经济的能力。这是一种思考金融危机的新方式,但我们需要迅速变得聪明的方式。

边缘:一项政策变化将是对碳的适当定价。这是该报告的主要建议之一。

马丁内斯 - 迪亚兹:这是正确的。事实上,在报告中的第1号建议。小组委员会关于推荐碳价格符合巴黎协议的碳价格,以及在成本方面相当分配的小组委员会没有争议。

边缘:您是否看到了我们在美国在欧洲看到的这种气候压力测试的任何迹象?

Martinez-Diaz:虽然除了加利福尼亚州,这对保险公司的压力测试取得了良好的进展,但实践中已经很少完成。188比分直播吧足球比分但金融机构和监管机构开始认识到,将气候风险方案应用于资产负债表和投资组合,以了解这些随着时间的推移。At the same time, banks don’t want the cost of having to do different kinds of stress tests in multiple jurisdictions where they do business — one in the United Kingdom and in the European Union, another in the U.S., and another in China, for example. They want to have a set of regulatory requirements that is as harmonized as possible, while at the same time being useful to their ability to manage climate risk.

前往小费点

边缘:披露问题有多重要?

MARTINEZ-DIAZ: Well, disclosure by itself is not enough. It’s important so that financial institutions understand the risks that they are directly and indirectly incurring from their activities downstream. It’s important for regulators to size the scope of the risks as well. But whether disclosure can be effective depends on the quality of that disclosure and on how extensive it is. And it depends on what investors do with the data that is disclosed.

If investors use the information to make decisions about how to allocate capital, then that — in combination with other policies — can really make a difference. But if we get stuck in a place where the data is very uneven and hard to compare and investors don’t actually use it to make decisions, then disclosure will not have advanced the mission.

边缘:If I can ask you to look out one or two years, are you hopeful that these sorts of changes that you’ve just outlined will come to pass? Or are we heading for, as you say, an abrupt shift?

Martinez-Diaz:我觉得我们正在走向倾向于倾向。我认为压力的压力,特别是年轻一代人在他们的长者上注意到这一挑战 - 游行,抗议活动 - 结合具有历史性的明显的身体影响,都在同时建立U.S. and other countries.

当政治对齐时,政策将开始相当快地改变。希望进步将足够快,因此我们可以避免在报告中警告的一些非常破坏性的转变。我们可以建立一个有助于我们在紧急情况下处理的系统,我们现在有当局现在这样做;这是报告的主要信息。

Leonardo Martinez-Diaz

世界资源研究所可持续金融中心的全球董事 @ leonardo_md1.

Leonardo Martinez-Diaz是世界资源研究所可持续金融中心的全球总监(WRI.华盛顿特区)加入WRI之前,Leonardo served in the Obama Administration as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Energy and Environment. In that capacity, he represented the U.S. on the governing boards of several multilateral climate and environmental funds, including the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility.

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