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伦敦市在2年后会有什么样的帖子,发布Brexit?

In the next week or so, the EU and U.K. are due to sign a Memorandum of Understanding on financial services and the future role of the City of London within Europe’s financial sector.

由于Brexit,伦敦的平均股票交易活动已经下降了一半,随着阿姆斯特丹超越伦敦,成为欧洲最大的股票交易中心。但尽管这象征着这个,但大多数贸易商,经纪人和资产经理都仍在伦敦。

莎拉大厅是一位高级伙伴UK in a Changing Europe还有诺丁汉大学经济地理教授。在两部分系列中,她审查了伦敦作为金融中心的未来。今天,她讨论了这个城市在欧洲的角色,明天,这座城市的潜力欧盟以外的成长

HALL: Going back to World War II, London has dominated Europe’s financial centers and has vied for the global top spot with New York. With Brexit, some market activity has clearly moved from London to Europe, such as share trading, and these moves will continue. Asset managers are setting up offices in the EU, for example, to be able to access the EU market.

But it looks increasingly likely that they are not all going to go to the same European financial center. London is losing business, but it’s losing it to a number of European cities, and because of that fragmentation effect within Europe, that means that, although London is smaller, it’s likely to still dominate.

没有护照,城市需要对欧盟的等效权

While the U.K. was a EU member state, financial institutions in the city could “passport” from their U.K. base into the EU — they didn’t require additional regulatory clearances in the member state they wanted to sell into. So you could essentially run your European operations out of London.

没有护照,U.K.需要依靠等价决定,这是欧盟决定第三国的监管制度等同于自己的监管制度。目前,U.K.已收到来自欧盟的两次有限的等价决定,只在可能被视为全身财务风险的地区。爱尔兰安全解决是其中之一。

The U.S., for example, has more equivalence decisions with the EU than the U.K. currently has, and Singapore does as well. So, equivalence is the part of the jigsaw that’s missing at the moment for the majority of the financial services sector in the U.K.

BRINK:How likely do you think it is for the City of London to get these equivalence deals?

HALL: If you’d asked me that question this time last year, I would have said that a trade deal would make equivalence decisions quite likely. But what’s happened in the past three months is that it’s become increasingly clear that, even though a trade deal was agreed upon, equivalence is looking less likely.

U.K.已经在许多领域授予欧盟的等价。它确实在去年11月。和理论上,鉴于UU.在欧盟单一市场,因此与欧盟有相同的监管制度,不应该有理由欧盟不授予等价。然而,欧盟金融服务专员的Mairead McGuinness非常清楚,欧盟不会去rush into equivalence decisions

Equivalence Is Becoming Increasingly Politicized

Equivalence has become increasingly politicized, and the EU is looking closely for any signs of regulatory divergence from the U.K. And the potential for divergence is making them wary about granting equivalence.

另一个发挥出来的动态是,对于法国等一些成员国,有一种胃口可以看出他们是否可以吸引来自U.K.的一些金融服务活动。

There probably isn’t uniformity within the EU on building up its own financial services, therefore, for some member states, attracting financial services after Brexit would not be in their top five most important areas.

BRINK:What does passporting have that equivalence doesn’t?

HALL: It’s a good question, because although equivalence would be the mode of market access that the U.K. could use, it’s only granted in specific areas of financial services. So it relates to particular regulatory areas, like security settlement, for example. It’s not a blanket decision.

有些金融服务部分,当时不可用,例如零售银行。没有适用于零售银行的等价制度。

Also, it’s not permanent. So the EU is able to withdraw its equivalence decisions with 30 days notice. So, an interesting question is: How valuable is equivalence, given that it’s not the same as passporting? In some ways, equivalence can be thought of as a perishable good for financial services in the U.K.

By that, I mean that the longer it isn’t granted, and the more that firms plan their operations without equivalence, the less valuable an equivalence decision would be. Because it’s unlikely that they would start to unpick some of the changes that they’ve made to operate now, in the absence of equivalence.

欧盟目的是建立自己的金融服务

BRINK:How serious do you think the EU is about wanting to build up its own financial services?

HALL: There probably isn’t uniformity within the EU on this. So for some member states, attracting financial services after Brexit would not be in their top five most important areas. Member states like Greece, for example, or Portugal, are not that focused on U.K. financial services.

But for other member states, there is a real appetite to do so. President Emmanuel Macron is definitely interested in the prospect of Paris being able to develop its financial services center.

但是,实际上,越是所涉及的政治家都会成为试图做到这一点,那么该中心的风险将不太可能吸引业务。金融中心的金融服务公司的价值是一个稳定的监管环境,以及监管机构可能掌握更广泛的政治趋势的监管环境。188bet滚球投注

因此,在迄今为止,在略低于政治化的监管环境中,这非常有趣的是,阿姆斯特丹和都柏林似乎已经做得很好。188bet滚球投注

碎片效果

BRINK:And what about the Germans?

HALL: For Germany, there’s a wider issue that relates to the state of capital markets in the EU. Germany is a quite heavily bank-based finance regime, as opposed to capital markets, which are more dominant in the U.K. And there’s been concern for a while in the EU about the under-use of capital markets and the lack of liquidity in European capital markets.

所以德国对金融市场可能或应该在德国的支持公司来做什么感兴趣。银行,跨国银行很可能也可以使用法兰克福作为欧洲基地。这反映了我越早关于欧洲融资碎片的观点,并且有不同类型的活动的迹象将进入不同的城市。

银行业务不是完全的,但非常有意义,瞄准法兰克福。虽然资产管理似乎对卢森堡和都柏林更感兴趣,是搬迁的潜在网站。阿姆斯特丹显然股票交易。

巴黎似乎试图推动自己成为富ll-service financial services center, and that’s a bit different to those other European centers.

Sarah Hall

Senior Fellow at UK in a Changing Europe @drsarah_hall

莎拉大厅是一位高级伙伴UK in a Changing Europe and a professor of economic geography at the University of Nottingham, U.K. Her current research examines the impacts of Brexit for the UK’s services sector. She is the author of Global Finance (Sage 2017) and Respatialising Finance (2021). Her work is regularly covered by the media including The Daily Telegraph, the BBC and the Guardian. She also provides analysis for policymakers in relation to the services sector and Brexit.

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