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Brexit提前的是什么?

Senior Research Fellow of UK in a Changing Europe

Now that a trade agreement has been reached between the EU and the U.K., what happens next? UK in a Changing Europe recently published a major analysis of the draft Brexit deal, known as theTrade & Cooperation Agreement (TCA), and its implications on the U.K.’s economy and society.

吉尔·鲁克是英国一名欧洲的高级研究员,在过去的四年里突然突破了Brexit。边缘要求她为即时将来提供一些指导。

鹿特:TCA中非常明显的是,他们没有谈判任何类型的实施阶段。如果在当天晚些时候完成了一笔交易,相当多的企业就是说,他们需要。但它没有发生。

英国正在逐步实施边境控制the next six months so the U.K. border doesn’t, if you like, go into full implementation until the 1st of July. The EU seems to have been going a bit lightly in the first couple of weeks, but stories going around now suggest that they are going to implement proper controls. Quite a lot of people have already been shocked to find that they’ve ordered something over the internet and then received a demand to pay duty that they never would have had inside the single market.

The position’s a bit different in Northern Ireland where the U.K. is obviously operating part of the EU’s border — the border in the Irish Sea that government ministers still say doesn’t exist. There are some grace periods that were agreed very late in the day in the joint committee, which expire particularly on the necessary certification accompanying agri-foods and things like that. Lots of concerns about what might happen if those expire without some long-term easements in place.

So it’s quite a complicated position, and we’re not fully there yet.

没有交易短期业务访问

BRINK:因为Covid,你认为我们不会立即看到消费者和雇主的全部影响吗?

鹿屎:interesting thing is that there have been very low traffic flows over the Channel crossing into France since the agreement. In part, that may have been because there was a lot of stockpiling that went on before the beginning of the year. We then had this rather traumatic effect in the immediate week before Christmas with the French shutting their border to people coming back from the U.K. because of the new variant of COVID. I do think people are anticipating more disruption in the weeks to come once those stockpiles have run down and trade reverts to normal.

The other bit where COVID hits is in the movement of people to the continent. There are obviously people moving to the continent for personal travel, where you have to go through a different queue at passport control and things like that. That’s probably livable.

But because of COVID, businesses haven’t yet felt the full impact of the new limitations on being able to service EU clients — where they might need someone to go and service a piece of machinery, or work on a project. That’s an area where, because there’s no agreement on short-term business visits, or on recognition of qualifications, there’s potentially quite a lot of disruption to come. But because nobody’s really doing that sort of business travel at the moment, it isn’t being felt.

预测贸易大幅下降

BRINK:Now that we have a deal, what’s your sense of the long-term economic impact? Which parts of the economy do you think will be impacted the greatest?

鹿屎:UK In A Changing Europe’s new report看待这笔交易对出口和进口的影响。它发现它对该等式的两侧具有很大的影响。出口额外的出口和进口量均为比进口的出口略有下降,略高。然后通过进入GDP。

与持续欧盟成员的反事实相比,它可能在抑制GDP方面有3%或4%的长期效果。如果您考虑到贸易倾向于使经济更具活力,提高生产力,提高技能和投资,那么看起来更像6%至8%的掉落。

在U.K中可以为GDP做的最好的事情并没有与Brexit完全相关,而是使用Brexit作为催化剂来解决U.K.经济的一些众所周知的长期结构弱点。

BRINK:在级别竞争领域的问题上,你是否预见了与欧盟的许多争议?

鹿屎:我认为这是6000亿英镑的问题,因为我们还不知道。We don’t know how readily the EU will use the provisions that are in the TCA either to raise specific disputes, take retaliatory action or to resort to what’s called the rebalancing mechanism, if they think that U.K. actions on a sub-level playing field areas have tilted the balance of competition too much in the U.K.’s favor.

与欧盟有竞争吗?

BRINK:所以你认为与欧盟的关系in general is going to be very rivalrous, or do you think that, in time, it will settle down?

It’s possible that the EU could say, “Well, we put the U.K. pretty firmly outside the single market. Its businesses now face a whole barrage of new red tape to do business in the EU, and therefore, anything they can do on the regulatory front is frankly going to have a pretty marginal effect compared to those changes.”

Or it might say, “We need to watch the U.K. like a hawk, and we need to send some very early warning shots across their bows to make sure they realize that they have very limited room for maneuver.”

总理曾表示,五年半,我们可以完全阻止我们的渔水域。从技术上讲,他是对的。但这绝对明确说,如果我们这样做,U.K.将不再享受贸易和合作协议等任何东西。有很多规定允许欧盟对交易,能源条款和其他方面进行贸易协定进行重新平衡行动。

问题是有限的分歧是有限的,以及是否随着时间的推移。想象的是,它真的值得拥有卫生标准等类似的权利吗?或者将是U.K.说,“是的,我们准备向欧盟检查提交我们的规定,这样我们就可以避免在边境中的许多非常繁重的检查”?

Possibility of Constant Friction

U.K.政府对商业的担忧有多活跃?它是否基本上对业务说:“你刚刚适应了。这是新的现实。如果你不能调整,那么,抱歉。“我认为这是一个非常有趣的问题。

部长将非常热衷于指出,他们现在能够与欧盟不同的事情,并且它正在带来各种具体的福利,因为他们需要向布雷克利特的人展示不仅仅是让我们的主权回归和名义上的控制,但实际上可以产生福利。

如果您与瑞士谈话,他们会告诉您他们实际上与欧盟的多项协议具有不断的摩擦。因此,欧盟将此视为使U.K.进入瑞士,在那里您总是在观看和干预,瑞士,当然,更好地获得单一的市场而不是U.K.或者是欧盟要对待U.K.作为地理位置更接近但从根本上更像加拿大?

BRINK:What’s your take on the wider opportunities outside the EU that have often been touted by the government? Do you think they can make up the ground lost from the EU?

RUTTER: New trade deals don’t do that much for your GDP because obviously they have to offer benefits to the other trade partner as well, in terms of better market access. They offer consumer benefits, but may not necessarily increase your GDP much. So you’ll be hard pressed to offset those benefits through other trade deals.

The best thing you could do for GDP in the U.K. is not really related to Brexit at all, but is to use Brexit as a catalyst to tackle some of the well-known, longstanding structural weaknesses of the U.K. economy such as low productivity and inequality and to use it as a catalyst to invest in skills and infrastructure.

Will Brexit galvanize us into thinking differently about the U.K. economy and actually tackling those problems? No one knows.

吉尔赶紧

Senior Research Fellow of UK in a Changing Europe

吉尔赶紧is a senior research fellow at the non-partisan academic think tank, UK in a Changing Europe, which recently released the reportWhat Would No Deal Mean?Before that, she led Brexit work at the Institute for Government, which she joined after holding senior roles in the UK civil service.

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