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对我们与亚洲国家的关系的四峰峰会信号是什么?

在他上任不到两个月,总统ident Joe Biden convened the first-ever leaders’ meeting of theQuadrilateral Security Dialogue(“四边形”)。这群领导民主国家的印度 - 澳大利亚,印度,日本和美国 - 寻求平衡和反击中国的自信行为,保护基于规则的区域秩序。

Focus on Vaccine Diplomacy

This meeting with Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, which took place on March 12 by videoconference, was President Biden’s first major foreign policy initiative. It focused substantially on vaccine diplomacy, an area where China has already established a lead. The leaders agreed on a “Quad Vaccine Partnership” to supply up to one billion coronavirus vaccines across the Indo-Pacific by the end of 2022. The U.S. and Japan plan to fund Indian production of Johnson and Johnson’s single-dose vaccine, which Australia will then distribute across Southeast Asia.

其他key issues on the Quad agenda were climate change, which was identified as a priority for the Quad and the Indo-Pacific region, along with critical and emerging technologies. To take its work forward, the Quad established working groups for vaccine experts, climate, and critical and emerging technology. Highlighting the potential important role of the Quad looking ahead, the leaders agreed to hold an in-person summit by the end of 2021. 

一个漫长的纠结历史

Before reaching the recent summit, the history of the Quad has been a long and winding road. The four countries came together as an ad-hoc group, the “Tsunami Core Group,” to respond to the tragic 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, which devastated communities in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand.

2007年,Quad的第一次会议举行了东盟区域论坛的边缘。随后,据中国担心这是中国遏制政策的机制,那么弃牌丢弃了;事实上,中国担心四川可以成为东亚的北约,中国成为目标。

In light of China’s assertive behavior under President Xi Jinping, in 2017, the Quad was revived as Quad 2.0 at the senior officials and ministerial level.

Since President Biden is very keen to work closely with allies and partners in balancing China, in contrast to former President Donald Trump’s go-it-alone style, he seized upon the informal grouping as a ready-made vehicle for democratic countries to work together. President Biden has even described the Quad as a “vital arena for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.”

The Quad summit was followed by a meeting on March 18 in Anchorage, Alaska, between U.S. Foreign Secretary Antony Blinken andNational Security Adviser杰克苏里那有their Chinese counterparts, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the first high-level meeting betweensenior American and Chinese officials自1月20日拜登管理局的就职典礼。

The Quad could become an effective way for Australia, India, Japan and the United States to work together in the Indo-Pacific.

Quad有可能成为美国巨大的竞争对手的关键车。虽然没有关于中国的参考Quad的公报,“四川省的精神”在重复的引用中对“自由和开放的印度 - 太平洋”进行了清晰。例如,四边形努力“for a region that is free, open, inclusive, healthy, anchored by democratic values, and unconstrained by coercion.”

与澳大利亚更接近联系

经过四年的前总统唐纳德特朗普的不稳定领导地位,其他四位议员显然很高兴看到美国返回美国的回归。在印度 - 太平洋地区的传统作用。

澳大利亚n Prime Minister Scott Morrison even described the Quad as the arrival of a “new dawn.” Australia was also heartened when President Biden’s Indo-Pacific czar, Kurt Campbell, indicated that the U.S. will not grant China any improvement in relations until Beijing stops itseconomic coercion of Australia

中国政府被告知“我们不会独自离开澳大利亚。”自澳大利亚政府呼吁在2020年4月,自澳大利亚政府呼吁独立,国际探究,澳大利亚大部分出口被批准。

但与美国的仔细对准也是澳大利亚的风险。

One of the major irritants in the Australia/China relationship is its intimate alliance with the U.S. Australia has also been a laggard in addressing climate change for some time and is now expected to come under pressure from the U.S. administration to lift its game.

For its part, Japan plays a delicate juggling game between China, its principal trading partner, and the U.S., its security guarantor. It would not appreciate being pressured to adopt hardline policies against China. And India, with its tradition of non-aligned foreign policies, is also keen to balance economic and security concerns in its relationship with China.

简而言之,四边形是一个在同一张床上睡觉的四个国家的案例,但梦想着不同的梦想!

Complicating the ASEAN Relationship

Another complicating factor is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which goes to great lengths to not get involved in China/U.S. rivalry, despite being a major battleground for influence between the two sides. The Quad communique was very careful to give a nod to ASEAN: “We reaffirm our strong support for ASEAN’s unity and centrality as well as the ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific.”

所有所说,四川都能成为四个民主国家在印度 - 太平洋共同努力的有效途径。他们可能确实最好是通过持续的“软动力问题”,如疫苗,而不是南海这样的棘手的安全问题。

美国在东南亚比中国更受欢迎

尽管有中国与东南亚的经济关系密切相关,美国在世界各地比中国更受欢迎,在美国的上课中崛起,对中国的统治地区的焦虑,伴随着焦虑。

东南亚州2021ISEAS-Yusof Ishak研究院的报告显示that over 60% of those surveyed would rather see Southeast Asia align with the U.S. than with China, up from 53.6% in 2020. The report shows that the election of President Biden, the pandemic and China’s responses to it are all shifting public opinion in the region (the survey was conducted after the election of President Biden).

它还表明,日本仍然是调查受访者之间最值得信赖的主要权力。总而言之,Quad可以通过继续关注软功率问题 - 这是一个在中国有明显的边缘的区域。

约翰斯特

Executive Director of the Asian Century Institute

John West是最近的书籍的作者,“亚洲世纪......在刀刃上,” and executive director of theAsian Century Institute。他还是东京索菲亚大学的兼职教授,并在FDI-Intellience撰写了一个金融时报杂志的编辑。这些职位遵循了国际经济学和关系的长期职业生涯,在澳大利亚财政部有主要的核心,在那里他是经合组织(公共事务和主任OCD Forum)和亚洲发展银行研究所的国际收支余额(公共事务负责人)(能力建设高级顾问)和训练)。

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