Among EU negotiators, the U.K. side was seen as delusional at best in its efforts to undermine the cohesion of the bloc whenever possible. It took years to convince various counterparts in Downing Street that trying to make separate deals with EU powerhouses such as Germany or France was not going to work.
The only negotiations that were going to take place would be with the EU commission’s Michel Barnier and his team. And success could only be achieved if the negotiations took all three objectives into account. They could not be disentangled. Any deal with London had to withstand a simple test: Are member states better off inside or outside the bloc? The answer had to be an unequivocal “only inside.”
Even the recovery fund, forged under the economic pressure caused by the COVID pandemic, should be seen as part of the European Brexit strategy, at least in part. The health emergency has the potential to cause greater fragmentation, both politically and economically. It could still strengthen nationalistic, populist forces, especially in the absence of effective common responses to the pandemic.
Seen from that perspective, the U.K. government under Prime Minister Boris Johnson had to be perceived as a potential Trojan horse for all anti-EU forces, both from within the bloc, as well as outside, such as in the U.S. With U.S. President Donald Trump defeated by voters, this danger has receded, at least for the next few years.
It should not be too surprising that the EU has already started to seize control of parts of the financial sector’s activities, namely in share trading — a key emblem of London’s financial markets.
Of course, when it comes to banking regulation, international standard-setting bodies, such as the巴塞尔银行业监督委员会, not Brussels, have been at the center of regulatory changes achieved in various jurisdictions over the past decade. The result is, in fact, a large degree of harmonization in banking regulation, notably among the U.S., the U.K. and the EU.
这在过去几天发生的缓解可能会鼓励欧洲追求更多的业务。在过渡期结束之前，主要关注的监管机构是关于金融稳定性的。It was for that reason that London’s clearing of derivatives had been granted temporary equivalence with EU rules until June 2022. Now even that could soon end up on the chopping block, as the EU will, no doubt, be tempted to reassert greater control over how its economy is funded.
金融就是所有问题的ces, the trade deal does nothing to eliminate or even mitigate uncertainty. Work on that large file is only starting.
Even more important is what the EU plans to do with the so-called data economy. The commission has recently unveiled ambitious proposals that, if turned into legislation, could result in profound changes to how the tech sector operates within the bloc.
It could also be an embryonic body that could evolve into something more ambitious over time, given the right level of political will and mutual trust.