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Brexit对欧盟意味着什么?

自2016年以来,欧盟在处理Brexit时有两个明确的优先事项,即:在没有U.K的情况下能够生存。并保护单一市场。为了实现这两个,是必要的第三个优先级:U.K.必须停止在其“拥有你的蛋糕并吃它”的战略。

有你的蛋糕和吃它

U.K.方面必须意识到它不会消除不方便的政治和官僚障碍,并保留它超过五十年享受的所有特权和优势。

从谈判的开始,欧盟方面变得清晰,实现这一目标并不容易。

Among EU negotiators, the U.K. side was seen as delusional at best in its efforts to undermine the cohesion of the bloc whenever possible. It took years to convince various counterparts in Downing Street that trying to make separate deals with EU powerhouses such as Germany or France was not going to work.

The only negotiations that were going to take place would be with the EU commission’s Michel Barnier and his team. And success could only be achieved if the negotiations took all three objectives into account. They could not be disentangled. Any deal with London had to withstand a simple test: Are member states better off inside or outside the bloc? The answer had to be an unequivocal “only inside.”

确保单一市场

Even the recovery fund, forged under the economic pressure caused by the COVID pandemic, should be seen as part of the European Brexit strategy, at least in part. The health emergency has the potential to cause greater fragmentation, both politically and economically. It could still strengthen nationalistic, populist forces, especially in the absence of effective common responses to the pandemic.

Seen from that perspective, the U.K. government under Prime Minister Boris Johnson had to be perceived as a potential Trojan horse for all anti-EU forces, both from within the bloc, as well as outside, such as in the U.S. With U.S. President Donald Trump defeated by voters, this danger has receded, at least for the next few years.

然而,在布鲁塞尔的观点中,从长远来看,如果第二个目标,即,可以保护单一市场的保护,只能保留集团的凝聚力。毫不奇怪,布鲁塞尔排除了与伦敦谈判的服务,包括金融服务。

如何处理金融服务?

遗漏遗漏的凹凸洞可能比避免多佛和戒指中的长卡车队员更深入的反响。毫无疑问,货物交易是重要的,但欧洲和欧洲经济增长的未来。

金融服务现在希望欧盟和u.k.可以在贸易协议上建立,并同意共同的监督标准。在3月底,应起草关于金融服务未来合作的谅解备忘录,但它不会与条约那样具有约束力。此外,如果达到的安排将是基于等价的概念的移动目标,强迫双方不断重新评估他们的监管制度是否仍然对齐。

It should not be too surprising that the EU has already started to seize control of parts of the financial sector’s activities, namely in share trading — a key emblem of London’s financial markets.

Of course, when it comes to banking regulation, international standard-setting bodies, such as the巴塞尔银行业监督委员会, not Brussels, have been at the center of regulatory changes achieved in various jurisdictions over the past decade. The result is, in fact, a large degree of harmonization in banking regulation, notably among the U.S., the U.K. and the EU.

但是,对于金融部门,紧密综合在伦敦等欧洲经济面料中,巴塞尔不是布鲁塞尔的替代品。此外,鉴于由于服务和金融服务的数字化加速数字化而发生的结构变动,未来几年将预期深刻的监管变化。如何相当于欧盟将伦敦伦敦?底部会有比赛吗?

抓住控制

在这个不确定的背景下,欧盟已经开始抓住了对金融部门的活动的各部分的控制,不应该令人惊讶,即分享交易- 伦敦金融市场的关键徽标。

这在过去几天发生的缓解可能会鼓励欧洲追求更多的业务。在过渡期结束之前,主要关注的监管机构是关于金融稳定性的。It was for that reason that London’s clearing of derivatives had been granted temporary equivalence with EU rules until June 2022. Now even that could soon end up on the chopping block, as the EU will, no doubt, be tempted to reassert greater control over how its economy is funded.

金融就是所有问题的ces, the trade deal does nothing to eliminate or even mitigate uncertainty. Work on that large file is only starting.

Even more important is what the EU plans to do with the so-called data economy. The commission has recently unveiled ambitious proposals that, if turned into legislation, could result in profound changes to how the tech sector operates within the bloc.

经济的绿化

这是双方的目标。实现它也将对两个经济体在未来几年发展方向的影响。对绿色经济的过渡将伴随着破坏性的监管变化。U.K.和欧盟协调会有多紧密?这是一个打开的问题。

有趣的是,将贸易交易的实体将成为一个“伙伴关系委员会”,由U.K.部长和欧洲委员联合监督。本局可以决定将与U.和欧盟结合的决定。它的审议可以保密。虽然理事会没有解决导致Brexit的一个投诉,但是决定落后于封闭的门,它使双方成为遏制标题或社交媒体驱动的相互投诉的爆发的机构。

It could also be an embryonic body that could evolve into something more ambitious over time, given the right level of political will and mutual trust.

让我们不要忘记欧盟以来的第四个目标,因为BREXIT公民投票是允许U.K.最终重新进入BLOC。如果伦敦愿意重新考虑其离开的决定,欧盟需要准备好。

Alexander Privitera.

Head of European Affairs at Commerzbank AG and BRINK Columnist

Alexander Privitera在华盛顿的智库AICGS,约翰霍普金斯大学是非居民。他还在Commerzbank AG的欧洲事务负责人。

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