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经济

2021年的经济前景如何?

在经历了强劲的锁定后追赶效应之后,预计2020年第4季度和2021年第1季度经济复苏将放缓,因为疏远措施再次收紧,持续的裁员将控制支出和投资。Euler Hermes has loweredour global GDP growth forecasts for 2021 to +4.6% (vs. +4.8% expected in June), following a contraction of -4.7% in 2020.

Q2 data has already confirmed diverging recovery paths, with China and its Asian trade partners, Germany and Brazil outpacing the rest of Western Europe and the United States. The sharpest trend reversals in activity should be visible starting in Q4 2020 in Europe (mainly Spain, France and the U.K.), the United States and in emerging markets such as Brazil and Mexico. In this context, the gradual phasing out of temporary policy measures designed to support companies will lead to a major trend reversal in business insolvencies, with a +31% increase expected by the end of 2021.

贸易、消费者和投资者的双重复苏

尽管全球货物贸易复苏强于预期,但美国和西欧的出口复苏仍落后于中国、新兴亚洲和东欧。2021年,我们预测全球商品和服务贸易将出现+7%的技术性反弹,但随着服务业继续挣扎和非全球化呼声的出现,预计只有2022年才能恢复到危机前的水平。

Meanwhile, a loss of purchasing power for the most fragile households will be hard to recover. The asymmetric exposure to job losses meant young, less qualified and part-time workers were hit the hardest, implying a K-shaped or “dual” recovery in consumer spending ahead.

Political Risk Could Be Back Like a Boomerang

无协议脱欧的几率已经上升到45%,而美国大选正在为新的财政悬崖和年底的司法纠纷铺平道路。2021年,美中科技战争、地中海紧张局势和美俄争端仍将是人们关注的焦点。

The risk of policy mistakes for emerging markets that loosened their fiscal discipline to fight the crisis will rise in 2022: Anticipations of higher U.S. rates should materialize then and debt sustainability worries could trigger pressures on emerging market currencies.

不是冒险的时候

在当前的市场环境下,必须考虑的是,尽管当前货188bet滚球投注币政策和财政政策交织,但现在的经济不确定性比年初更大,地缘政治风险更大,估值更紧。在这种情况下,股市表现出与基本面决定因素的持续分离,使得最近的反弹几乎没有道理。

COVID-19已经证明了改变是多么的迅速;这是一个可喜的破除积垢结构和推动数字化,我们的工作方式已经改变了。

Because of that, we still expect the equity market to underperform in 2020 and to start a muted rally in 2021. When it comes to corporate credit, both investment grade and high-yield corporate spreads look too tight. As in equities, corporate credit markets remain detached from fundamentals on the back of the central banks’ perpetual put option.

Lastly, with the short end of most developed countries’ sovereign yield curves anchored by their respective central banks, we expect a timid curve steepening toward the end of 2020 and 2021. This gradual increase in term premium will occur on the back of higher inflation expectations and a halt in the recent decline of real yields. On the other hand, long-term emerging market sovereign spreads look overbought.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy: The Devil Is in the Details

European Union member states agreed on issuing common debt to boost the recovery in a historical move. Yet the different natures and spending calendars of fiscal policies will matter: Countries focusing on (short-term) demand (Germany, U.S., China, etc.) could see a faster recovery than those betting on supply (France). Some countries still need to do more (Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom).

在危机刚结束的时候,尽管有这些政策的推动,通胀仍可能保持温和;我们认为,从2022年开始,美国的失业率将出现适度和暂时的超调。在货币政策方面,我们预计美联储(Federal Reserve)将在2021年上半年加速购买证券,其量化宽松(QE)计划将从2022年中期开始逐步缩减,并在2023年第3季度首次加息。欧洲央行(ecb)应在2020年12月宣布追加5000亿欧元的量化宽松政策。

COVID-19改变了游戏规则

First, the fight for regional primacy will lead to a regular “weaponization” of technology, trade, currencies and payment systems. Second, the balance between the state and markets will change, to the disadvantage of the latter. And as the state gets more and more entangled in the private sector, market dynamics for innovation will get weaker while the number of zombie companies rises. Private players in social security — such as life insurers — might be pushed against the wall.

国家日益增长的作用也对货币政策产生了影响。高(不可持续的)债务水平将迫使各国央行支持主权和企业债券市场,以确保有利的再融资条件。最终,这些超扩张性货币政策可能会剥夺市场合理定价和配置资源的能力,并鼓励债务人和投资者过度冒险。

However, every cloud has a silver lining: COVID-19 has shown how quickly change is possible; it is a welcome break-up of encrusted structures and a boost to digitalization. The way we work has changed for good. Future work will see more remote working and flexible team structures but less business trips. Finally, it has also raised society’s risk awareness, including for low-probability, high-impact tail risks.

The upshot: More demand for and better pricing of risk cover. This should be a boon for insurers — if they are able to offer comprehensive and simple solutions.

Ludovic Subran

安联裕利安怡首席经济学家 @Ludovic_Subran

Ludovic Subran is the Chief Economist at Allianz and Euler Hermes. He has previously worked for the French Ministry of Finance, the United Nations, and the World Bank where he helped design economic policies in more than 30 countries around the world. Subran makes frequent media appearances worldwide and is fluent in seven languages.

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