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美国的移民政策面临着拉丁美洲的僵硬试验

如果您是危地马拉的移民走私者,您可能会提高您的营销努力,以便北方朝北,称乔·拜登总统曾获得绿灯。在墨西哥的移民营地正在举办类似的销售投票,新的美国政府正在向千年搁浅的庇护者提供希望,即现在将认真对待他们的索赔。但不是那么快。

没有开放的边界政策

尽管A.竞选行政当局要求宽松总统唐纳德特朗普的移民政策,扫除行政订单和建议的筏子,要求耐心。远离“开放边界”政策,拜登政府了解到,为了缓慢中美洲移民,必须与各国合作解决其根本原因。

Complications with the so-called Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, and testy relations with our immediate Southern neighbor will make that harder.

拜登总统是quick to beginreversing four years of hostility to immigration. On his first day in office, he opened the door to citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants, halted border wall construction and protected the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals. The next day, he announced plans to suspend deportations for 100 days and paused former President Trump’s “Remain in Mexico” program, which required asylum-seekers to wait in Mexico for U.S. court hearings. Soon after that, he rescinded former President Trump’s family separation policy and pledged to raise the refugee cap to 125,000.

But not all policy can be accomplished with the flick of a pen.

It will take time to untie the Trump administration’s changes to the U.S. immigration system — some1,058 individual policy changeshave been identified. There’s also the matter of building back the infrastructure and capacity, including asylum processing capabilities and resources. And for long-lasting change, President Biden will need Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform; addressing questions like permanent residency or citizenship requires legislation.

Addressing the Poverty and Violence in the Northern Triangle

Former President Trump slashed U.S. development aid to危地马拉,洪都拉斯和萨尔瓦多在努力迫使各国政府削减向美国迁移。这留下了这些北部三角国的国家没有资金解决了许多导致人们首先逃离的因素。

它也不是激励美国国会与美国金钱联系的反腐败或人权承诺的逻辑方式。

President Biden will take a very different approach, one that has a40亿美元investment price tag. The hope is that addressing issues like poverty, violence, environmental crises and unemployment in Central America will encourage people to remain in their home countries. The new administration has also terminated Trump-era policies that forced U.S.-bound migrants to first seek asylum in theNorthern Triangle

Cooperation to improve everyday life is harder if countries don’t get along, though. The Biden administration recentlyturned down来自El Salvador总裁Nayib Bukele的会议请求,虽然在家里疯狂地受欢迎,但已经表现出了一项不断扩大的专制行为。

如果拜登总统的移民政策取得成功,北行移民模式的长期班级是一种真正的可能性。

与此同时,美国检察官正在调查president of Honduras for毒品贿赂。In Guatemala, Biden, during his tenure as vice president, pushed various administrations to accept the U.N.-backed国际违反惩罚委员会in Guatemala, but the previous president of Guatemala shut it down in 2019.

美国可以避免踩踏吗?

Now is not the time to come“拜登政府正在讲述移民,但信息正在降落聋耳朵。

Despite pleas for patience, President Biden’s electoral victory last November spurred a rush to the United States. For each of the past four months, U.S. authorities have made over 70,000 detentions and arrests along the Mexico border,最繁忙的时期之一of the past decade.

拜登总统面临着大规模北行迁移的完美风暴。拉丁美洲占了第二高欧洲后的Covid-19死亡人数。该地区的GDP下跌7.4%去年,威胁要消灭几十年的进步in poverty reduction. Two hurricanes swept through Central America in 2020, destroying homes and造成数十亿美元的损害

在危地马拉之前从洪都拉斯从洪都拉斯从洪都拉斯旅行到美国的9,000人的移民大篷车时,移民浪潮的前景很清楚soldiers broke it up

A recent poll found that a whopping41% of Honduransbetween the age of 18 and 39 consider it “very probable” that they will emigrate.

Uneasy Partnership With Mexico

There’s one key piece of the immigration puzzle that must be always firmly in place for any U.S. immigration policy to work: cooperation with Mexico. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador became an unlikely ally of former President Donald Trump, deploying thousands of soldiers to clamp down on U.S. asylum-seekers from Central America.

但期待总统拜登总统和洛博斯议长之间的一些粗糙补丁。墨西哥的民粹主义领导者并没有认识到拜登总统的胜利,直到12月中旬,并增加了一倍化石燃料由于拜登行政宣传可再生能源来对抗气候危机。

Recently, the Mexican governmentstopped taking back在Covid-19的特朗普时代紧急健康秩序下,从美国边界迅速返回的中美洲家庭。反过来,数百名移民家庭were recently released into the U.S. by Border Patrol agents.

在长期内可能是可能的

Between easing lockdowns in Latin America and more lenient immigration policies in the United States, northward migration will keep accelerating. But if President Biden’s immigration policy is successful — including improving economic opportunity, rule of law and transparency in Central America — a longer-term shift in the northbound migration patterns is a real possibility. In the meantime, policy will also meet politics, as U.S. and Latin American governments appeal to their bases, and President Biden tries to keep Democrats in power during midterm elections and beyond.

Peter Schechter

主持altamar全球问题播客和边缘专栏作家 @PDSchechter

Peter Schechter is host of theAltamarglobal issues podcast. He is also the former founding director of the Atlantic Council’s Latin America Center. He can be found on Twitter at@PDSchechter

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