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欧盟需要碳汇策略。这就是为什么。

Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH的首席执行官 Senior Fellow of German Institute for International and Security Affairs

气候中性意味着不仅仅是减少温室气体排放。最近在欧洲委员会建议将排放汇总陷入困境的计算中,这变得清晰,通过包括造林措施的影响,应包括在达到加强的2030个气候目标的计算中。

Climate neutrality means net-zero emissions. Not all emissions can be completely eliminated — for example, those caused by agriculture, heavy industry or shipping. Some way of compensating for these must, therefore, be found. Combating anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases rightfully occupy a central position in the roadmap toward achieving climate neutrality. However, we must also get serious about preserving and expanding carbon dioxide sinks; in other words, about capturing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it permanently.

在社会中广泛讨论了传统的缓解措施,例如能源效率和可再生能源部署,并得到了多种分析,研究和策略的支持。但我们对沉没和潜力相对较少。该主题应系统地和战略性地接近。因此,欧盟需要碳汇策略和伴随的路线图,具有详细的目标和实施计划。

询问正确的问题

The key questions are: How much sink capacity do we need to become climate neutral by 2050 — and to remain so afterward? What kinds of sinks do we want? And how do we organize all this so that it also pays off economically?

甚至一个问题就像“多少钱?”不容易回答。没有人可以肯定在欧盟中,肯定会肯定是什么,从农业,工业和航空的剩余排放量将在欧盟到欧盟。但甚至是情景缺乏。迄今为止,只有一个分析可用,欧洲委员会于2018年出版。在这里,剩余排放占1990年的10%,而90%的排放可以使用常规排放措施减轻。虽然10%可能听起来不像很多,但它代表了超过5亿公吨carbon dioxideE.quivalents annually. This is twice as much as is currently being removed from the atmosphere through afforestation and better forest management.

欧盟净零排放路径的逐个部门插图;资料来源:SWP柏林

Carbon Sink Leakage Potential

在欧盟,网上有很多经验carbon dioxide通过土地使用,土地利用变化和林业(Lulucf)拆卸。然而,这种经验也告诉我们确切的测量carbon dioxideremovals via LULUCF is fraught with great uncertainty. Furthermore, the forests that have formed the most important sinks to-date are vulnerable to disturbances like heat stress, fires and pests. There is a real danger that thecarbon dioxidebound in trees and soils might escape into the atmosphere again later on. It is precisely for this reason that the sink capacity of forests has not been included in calculations for achieving EU climate targets to-date.

There are good reasons to change this as we proceed toward climate neutrality. But we also require greater efforts and new concepts in this sector. This includes, for example, the issue of storing morecarbon dioxidein agricultural soils, or finding ways to clear forest areas sustainably if trees are no longer growing and thus not storing additionalcarbon dioxideanymore. The increased use of wood as a long-lasting building material might be one solution to this.

但是,还有技术方法捕获carbon dioxide从大气层。最着名的是直接空气碳捕获和储存;它过滤carbon dioxide与地质环境空气和结合storage. This process requires relatively little land and affords great flexibility in the choice of location. However, it needs a lot of energy and is still very expensive. So far, there have only been a few pilot installations, and it is hardly possible to predict whether a massive expansion would result in cost reductions as dramatic as those in solar and wind power. Only limited potential is attributed to other processes such as biochar burial or deploying crushed minerals on soil or in coastal waters. Some of these may also face an acceptance problem, depending on countries and locations of deployment. But just like with conventional emission reductions, we should not rely on one single technology for creating and expanding ourcarbon dioxidesinks.

What Needs to Be Done?

扩展我们的知识库可以帮助我们以冷静的方式与此问题进行搞 - 只有结构化的过程和战略,我们将能够做出充分的进展。为了使基于生态系统或技术汇的可持续利用,我们需要雄心勃勃的项目。一方面,欧盟在这里有义务 - 不仅仅是因为它在2050年到2050年的气候中立目标,而且是出于全球和历史责任的原因。另一方面,还有机会建立为新市场提供服务的技术和流程,从而创造就业和繁荣。

Although it is true that there is a growing number of research programs on carbon dioxide removal, in climate policy the issue has been given hardly any consideration so far. If we intend to transform the EU’s economy into a climate-neutral one over the next three decades, we will very soon need an initial idea of carbon dioxide removal goals that we want to achieve by 2030, 2040 and 2050. This would give more structure to the transformation process, in which emission reductions and sink enhancements face different challenges. The IPCC has repeatedly pointed to the necessity of expanding carbon dioxide sinks. Individual countries like the U.K. and Switzerland, or U.S. states like California, have already begun to formulate strategies and even fund demonstration plants.

作为一个既定的气候政策领导者,应该是欧盟不再留在边线的愿望。

本文的版本最初出现在世界经济论坛中Agenda blog

Andreas Kuhlmann.

Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH的首席执行官 @ajk_kuhlmann.

Andreas Kuhlmann.是c赫认知at.Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbHAndreas Kuhlmann.was appointed dena’s chief executive in July 2015. Among others, the graduate physicist has held positions at the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), the German Embassy in Stockholm and the European Parliament, the German Parliament and the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs.

    Oliver Geden.

    Senior Fellow of German Institute for International and Security Affairs @oliver_geden.

    Oliver Geden.is a sE.德国国际和安全事务研究所(SWP)和IPCC第6次评估报告中的领先作者尼奥研究员。

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