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Economy

The Pandemic Will Structurally Change the Global Economy More Than We Think

Those who say there are no letters left in the alphabet to describe the evolution of the world economy after the pandemic are absolutely right. It is abundantly clear now that we cannot expect to see a rapid V-shaped recovery — nor should we expect a complete stagnation or a L-shaped recovery.

The Square Root-Shaped Economy

最新版本的恢复,k形,反映了胜利和失去的扇区之间的差异,包括中产阶级。

所以而不是建议一封信,我想在后Covid世界中调用不同的形状恢复:平方根。平方根始于强大的上升,就像我们现在正在经历的那样,即使是大流行仍然徘徊。

However, this rapid recovery is immediately followed by a structural slowdown. In other words, the problem is not so much a sudden collapse in activity, but the negative impact that follows.

大问题是:为什么大流行会带来较低的增长?有几个原因。

4 Reasons Why COVID Brings Lower Growth

Firstly, companies will be less profitable and will react by cutting fixed asset investment.

其次,收入的分配将恶化全世界。事实上,大流行导致全世界业务盈利的严重恶化。与2008年全球危机类似,公司将希望收回其盈利能力和利润,他们将不得不减少就业和工资。这将使全世界的收入分配恶化。

换句话说,单位劳动力成本的更大压力,因此对家庭购买力似乎是不可避免的。为了使事项更糟糕,来自超宽容的货币政策的资产价格气泡必然会增加工人阶级和能够投资金融资产之间的鸿沟。

第三,国家干预经济的措施导致僵尸公司的更大份额。利率仍然很低的事实将使各国政府能够继续融资这种非生产品公司及其相关的储蓄误会。

是时候重新思考许多的基本原则of our economic model to mitigate these impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

第四次潜在的负面后果是,由于新兴经济体中越来越挥发的流量,全球金融不稳定可能是大流行的关键意向后果之一,并疑虑美元作为储备货币的作用。

不稳定的资本流量

The combination of ultra-abundant global liquidity and fluctuations in risk aversion can lead to highly unstable capital flows, which remain crucial for many emerging countries. And the more an emerging country depends on external financing, the more costly this situation can be in terms of volatility of capital flows and economic performance.

Another form of financial instability may come from the growing doubt surrounding the role of the dollar in the world economy, stemming from the lack of U.S. leadership, the sharp increase in U.S. external debt and the ultra-expansionary monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

中国广泛意识到美国的长期霸权作为储备货币的重要性,并将没有努力使用它所使用的武器,以减弱美元在长期运行中的作用。

The Hiatus in Education

The fifth and final reason is driven by the loss of human capital due to the discontinuation of education programs globally. There is bound to be a reduction in fertility rates for many years, given the negative impact of the pandemic on household income for years to come.

如果我们更详细地分析每个点,中期的增长较低似乎是不可避免的,并且随之而来,我们正在进行超低利率环境。人力资本的丧失,以及金融资本损失188bet滚球投注由于投资急剧下降,除了由于破产而破坏商业面料外,都必须具有持久的效果,需求政策无法做些什么。

需要社会改革

任何缓冲效应都必须来自创新和社会规范的变化,包括更快的数字化,并且可能是经济活动的进一步绿化。尽管如此,需要为技术和社会创新而努力抵消这一趋势的努力,潜在增长较低的潜力。

总之,我们可以在中期这种大流行中所期望的经济影响对公司,家庭或政府来说并不是希望。很难想到对世界经济更毁灭的震惊,而不仅仅是因为即时影响。

是时候重新思考许多的基本原则of our economic model to mitigate these impacts.

Aliciagarcía-herrero

Bruegel和Natixis亚太地区首席经济学家高级研究员

AliciaGarcíaHerrero是亚太地区的首席经济学家Natixis和一位高级研究员布鲁格尔。Previously she was chief economist for Emerging Markets at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria. She is a non-resident fellow at Cornell’s emerging market research centre and Senior Research Fellow at El Cano Royal Institute for International Relations. She is currently adjunct professor at City University of Hong Kong, visiting faculty at University of Science and Technology as well as at China-Europe International Business School.

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