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Covid-19造成的即将到来的婴儿胸部

Wellesley College经济学教授

研究人员预计大约五百万婴儿将出生在美国。由于大流行。这可能对GDP,未来的工作市场甚至是资助社会保障的能力产生深远的影响。

这项研究was conducted by Phillip Levine, professor of economics at Wellesley College, and Melissa Kearney, professor of Economics at the University of Maryland.

LEVINE: We use two main pieces of evidence to justify our position that births will be falling over the course of 2021. The first comes from the Great Recession. We are currently living through a significant economic contraction, and in general, recessions are not good for fertility. So, we base our evidence from the Great Recession, where we use data from all 50 states to evaluate the relationship between labor market conditions and fertility.

衰退导致出生率下降

我们发现的是,失业率的一个百分点增加趋于导致出生减少约1%。该证据完全符合关于经济条件对生育的影响的其他研究。

We’re also living through a significant public health crisis. Thankfully, we don’t have as much evidence to draw on from public health crises, but the last one that we can use is the Spanish flu from 1918.

我们在生育率方面观察到的是,诞生似乎对公共卫生危机的变化以及当时发生的死亡的变化很大。

There were three very distinct spikes in deaths that occurred during the Spanish flu. It turns out that exactly nine months after each of those spikes, births plummeted. And so we rely on that evidence as well to suggest that births are going to fall for what is now this year.

Source: Brookings Institution

BRINK:你最终出现了什么范围?

Levine:结合两件证据,我们最初预测今年不会发生300,000到半百万的出生,因为大流行。由于经济已经恢复了300,000号标记,我们已经降低到300,000号标记,而不是我们最初预期的速度迅速

Fewer Google Searches for Pregnancy Tests

BRINK:你是否在其他地方找到了必要的基因证据或轶事证据?

LEVINE: Yes, we have indications from indirect sources that suggest we’re on the right path. Surveys have been done on sexual activity, which show that sexual activity has diminished since the start of the pandemic. That pattern is particularly evident among women who already have children.

You can imagine that for individuals with little kids running around the house who may have limited access to daycare, limited access to in-person schooling, social distancing requirements, et cetera, that this is a very stressful time for those families. And it’s having an impact.

We also see evidence on the basis of what people search for on Google. If you’re thinking that you might be getting pregnant, you might be searching for pregnancy tests. If you get pregnant, you might be searching for information about ultrasounds, things like that. We see evidence that that sort of search activity has diminished over the course of the past several months. These indirect behaviors could be correlated with reduced fertility.

没有回来的出生

BRINK:And is it possible at this stage for you to know what exactly is causing it? Is it the lockdowns? Is it the illness itself? Is it the economic knock-on effects?

LEVINE: We don’t know the answer to that. Clearly the public health threat itself is a big deal, but there are other significant changes in our lives that would be very difficult for us to formally incorporate into a forecast. The issue of school closings and limited childcare — we don’t have any basis to judge what impact school closings have on fertility, as we’ve never had that experience before. So, it’s possible that we’re understating the impact.

BRINK:这些证据表明,这些是简单地推迟的分娩,最终会发生婴儿繁荣的形式,或者你认为这些是这些都是永远消失的分娩吗?

Levine:我们的假设是这些诞生的重要部分可能永远被淘汰。我们认为这主要是基于对生育的次数的影响。

If sometime this summer, it turns out that everybody ends up being vaccinated (keep our fingers crossed) and the public health crisis disappears, the economy isn’t going to recover instantly. That’s not the way the economy works. It will take years to fully recover from this.

And it’s not just the job loss. Even after recessions end, when people do return to work, it also tends to be the case that the jobs that they get often aren’t as good as the ones they had before the recession.

因此,有与失业相关的收入损失,但与较低的工资有关的长期收入损失。它需要很长时间才能从这些情况中恢复,如果这需要三,四年或五年可以延迟出生,并且在某些时候难以赶上这一点。

The US Is Seeing a Long-Term Reduction in Fertility

BRINK:出生中这一下降的经济影响是什么?

莱文:如果它只是我们发射g through this public health crisis, then we’re talking about a few hundred thousand fewer births this year. In a society with over 300 million people, 300,000 fewer births is not really all that big of a deal.

但是,这个问题是,这是在十年上持续下降的肥力下降的高跟鞋。

我们已经从2007年最近的峰值达到了500,000到60万次出生,所以现在你开始谈论接近每年出生的百万婴儿。

你开始随着时间的推移而增加 - 这是很多人。而且人口越大,经济越大。这是一个简单的数学。因此,多年来,更改人口统计学可能会对经济和社会产生影响。

Immigration Is a Possible Solution

如果我们实际上担心人口下降,那么增加了增加人口大小的方法。有杠杆我们可以推动它会立即让我们更多的人,如移民。因此,关于我们希望我们的移民政策肯定是相关的政策讨论。

BRINK:Is there anything businesses should do in terms of preparing for this?

LEVINE: This is going to clearly affect different businesses in different ways. We can follow these kids through their life cycle and forecast where we’re going to start seeing impacts on the economy and the businesses that deal with those segments of the population.

我想五,六年,我们将开始对学校入学的影响;另一十几年之后,您将开始看到对大学和劳动力进入的影响。

在某些时候,这些工人将进入劳动力,对社会保障制度的贡献将下降。这对退休保障制度的健康有重要意义。

就像四十年代和五十年代发生的婴儿潮流一样对我们的生活中的经济和社会产生非常巨大的影响,人口概况的巨大变化。如果这继续前进,我们会看到这里发生的戏剧性效果。

Phillip Levine

Wellesley College经济学教授

Phillip Levine is the Katharine Coman and A. Barton Hepburn professor of economics atWellesley学院是,全国经济局和布鲁克斯机构的非居民高级研究员。

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