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The City of London’s Potential Growth Opportunity Outside of the EU

莎拉大厅是高级人士UK in a Changing Europe还有诺丁汉大学经济地理教授。在两部分系列中,她审查了伦敦作为金融中心的未来。在昨天的作品中,她在欧洲金融中审查了伦敦的未来。

Today, she looks at the city’s potential for growth outside of the EU as a part of what the British government calls Global Britain.

霍尔:当你看看来自U.K.政府来的修辞和政策陈述时,重点是金融服务在国际和开放的金融中心。“国际”和“开放”是U.K的两个词。对等价的方法。

They also appear in the U.K. Treasury’s publication of the U.K.’s approach to equivalence that came out in November 2020. Again, a recurring theme was that London would be internationally focused and open.

国际和开放

这些主题也出现在Jonathan Hill审查中City’s regulatory framework, which was published recently. What the U.K. government appears to be looking at is regulatory flexibility, while also trying to emphasize that it wants to maintain regulatory high standards. It doesn’t want to be seen as engaged in a regulatory race to the bottom.

如果你看看山坡评论,那可能是一个公平的描述。这将是一个伸展的,说U.K.正在向底部显示一个监管赛。在许多方面,山坡评论是一种国际反应形式的监管形式,因为它旨在复制一些美国的监管方法,而不是创新或放松以下现有的国际标准。

That being said, geography still matters in trade.

Particularly in financial services. It’s not only that the U.K. exports financial services to the EU, it’s also that a number of international financial institutions use London as their Europe hub.

So, I’m a little bit skeptical as to the extent to which the full loss in business from Brexit can be made up from new global relations, but that’s not to say that none of it can. There are some opportunities.

For example, can it work in a complementary, rather than competitive, way with New York such that it benefits from that connection? And what opportunities can it lever in Asia, say with Australia? A degree of caution is needed here, as beyond China, Hong Kong and Singapore, there aren’t many large Asian financial centers. In practical terms, certainly when the U.K. was an EU member state, it was easier to trade with Europe than Asia Pacific, particularly in services.

成为人民币的交易中心?

The U.K. is focused on fintech and tech more generally at the moment, in terms of its industrial strategy, although the U.S. is clearly hugely dominant in this area.

We will look back at the period from early 1990s to Brexit as a time when London incorporated Europe into what was, and has always been, much more of a global outlook for the City of London — such as the ways in which London sought to attract finance from China in the early 2010s. This was part of China’s strategy to internationalize its currency, the renminbi or RMB. Under former Prime Minister David Cameron in the mid 2010s, London and the City of London corporation worked hard to position London as the leading western RMB center.

London’s focus might change in terms of some of the sectors that are important to it, and it’s likely to be a bit smaller, but it will still be the largest financial center in Europe.

The China example is quite powerful because it shows the risks as well as the opportunities globally and the ways in which partnering internationally is as much a geopolitical set of questions as it is geo-economics.

There are implications, for example, if you work closely with China, given the new U.S. administration’s approach to China — and before that, the Trump administration’s approach. The U.K. is also looking more generally at former and current commonwealth countries, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.

The impacts of that for financial services are more limited than in other sectors. Although RMB finance in London grew in the mid 2010s, there has been much less activity in that area since then.

全球服务不太可能取代所有丢失的欧盟业务

它最有可能在U.K中的金融服务。在Brexit投票前三到五年将更小。在多大程度上比较少于这一点。但特别是随着等价讨论似乎的方式,一些企业将搬迁到欧盟成员国的趋势可能会继续下去。

在整个历史中,全市的重复抑制之一是在遭受压力时寻找新市场的搜索。20世纪60年代的欧元债券是一个例子;大爆炸是另一个例子,在那里,法规被用来试图与纽约竞争。

And the early evidence is that the city under this government is going to try to seek out new markets, particularly in relation to fintech and also in relation to sustainable and green finance.

基于此,伦敦的焦点可能会在对其重要的一些部门方面改变一点,并且可能有点小,但它仍将是欧洲最大的金融中心。

边缘:你认为伦敦本身会因为这些变化而变化吗?

HALL: I think it will. And here, although I’m a little bit reluctant to do so, I don’t think you can untangle this from COVID and the way in which the pandemic has impacted London quite significantly already.

In a booming professional services economy, people are prepared to pay the higher price, and I mean the high price, both in terms of housing, but also in terms of things like air quality and access to services, to live in London because of the opportunities that are provided.

There’s already evidence that there’s been quite a significant migration out of London. Some of that is EU nationals leaving after Brexit. But there’s also quite a significant migration out of London to more rural areas, as people try to create space in the pandemic.

那个运动是永久的多少?显然,我们现在不知道。如果金融服务显着下降,伦敦确实有能力吸引其他形式的业务。

I don’t see a collapse in its economy or anything like that, but it could be a more challenging time economically for London than we’ve seen recently because of the way in which Brexit has hit the financial services and the way in which the pandemic has hit London’s economy in general.

莎拉大厅

Senior Fellow at UK in a Changing Europe @drsarah_hall

莎拉·霍尔是一个高级研究员英国在变化Europe and a professor of economic geography at the University of Nottingham, U.K. Her current research examines the impacts of Brexit for the UK’s services sector. She is the author of Global Finance (Sage 2017) and Respatialising Finance (2021). Her work is regularly covered by the media including The Daily Telegraph, the BBC and the Guardian. She also provides analysis for policymakers in relation to the services sector and Brexit.

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