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Covid-19的经济和社会影响是普遍和深刻的,因此需要很长时间才能编目并详细评估它们。但是,许多具有重要经济后果对美国进行的重点。以下是其中六个。

广泛的停机是复合的整体经济损害

What good is a stimulus package if people have nothing to spend it on? Near total economic shutdowns, such as California, Illinois, Louisiana and a growing number of other states are imposing, have two economic impacts: First, many more people are not able to work. Second, if the federal government gives them money, as Congress is proposing, then most people will have limited things to spend it on since so much of the economy will be closed.

这就是为什么政府更仔细地思考哪些活动完全关闭的时候。明确保证禁止大型聚会和闭幕式聚会场所。但是,关闭小型建筑工地,汽车维修店和其他活动的面对面人体接触较低将复合整体经济损害和裁员将要大得多。

它还扼杀了迈克尔在他的新书中谈论的谈判新级战争在哪里“知识工作者”和美国其他地区的利益分歧We knowledge workers get to keep earning money staying at home working on our laptops and using Zoom, while tens of millions of blue-collar workers are totally screwed, put out of work completely.

The Anti-Big Movement Is Gaining Momentum

For the past five years, we have seen an ideological “small is beautiful“运动蓬勃发展,现在,由于国会辩论严格要求措施保持经济漂浮,”新布兰德斯“的反大商业运动正在进入自己。Washington Post专栏作家凯瑟琳垃圾馆writesthat Congress should let big companies go bankrupt; the companies government should help are “small- and medium-sized firms.” TheFinancial Times’Rana Forooharwrites那“this time the small guys should get the bailouts.” AndWashington Postcolumnist E.J. Dionneconc

So, it’s okay if a big firm like Boeing goes belly up, but not a bunch of local pizza parlors? Let’s stop for a moment and think about that one. Not only does Boeing and its domestic supply chain employ more than 2 million workers, but if Boeing goes out of business because of a short-term liquidity problem that the federal government could easily solve (at no long-term cost), then we should be under no delusion: For the first time in over a century, the United States will not be producing passenger airplanes. There will be two major global aircraft producers: Europe’s Airbus and China’s state-owned COMAC. And America will be technologically and militarily weaker and economically poorer because of it.

Federal Deficits Are Heading for a Crisis

Our elected leaders should make it clear that the checks they will be mailing are not really grants; in the long run, they are loans. The government is providing liquidity now that ultimately will need to be paid back through higher taxes unless we want to assume that the national debt will never be reduced. In fact, it’s time to recognize that deficit spending itself is a loan from future generations to the current one.

如果Covid-19有一个可能的亮点,那就是现在,当时,它正在发生,而不是十年前。

Once this crisis has passed, there needs to be a bipartisan consensus to raise taxes and cut spending (while increasing true public investment). We need to commit to moving the budget from deficit to surplus over a period of less than 10 years and then run surpluses to significantly reduce the national debt-to-GDP ratio.

Soaring Deficits + Reduced Public Investment = Chinese Competitive Advantage

即使拥有2万亿美元的刺激,美国经济也会有很大的机会,如果我们必须在制定疫苗之前,我们将在最低衰退和可能是双重衰退的双重衰退的衰退。这将意味着赤字不仅增加了2万亿美元,但也许超过3万亿美元。

The pressure on public investment, including funding for infrastructure, R&D and a robust national industrial strategy to counter China will be intense. As a result, absent needed federal investments to winracefor global innovation advantage那we need to face the real possibility of continued U.S. decline in advanced-technology industries, with China gaining absolute advantage much sooner than even the most pessimistic observers expected.

China Trade Decoupling Will Rise, but Could Go Badly Off Track

在Covid-19之前,由于贸易战,从中国生产的美国生产的速度较大但越来越大。But now, with the growing realization of the U.S. dependency on China for key inputs, including for medical uses (masks, drugs, etc.) — made worse by the Chinese government’s massive strategic mistake telling U.S. companies making masks in China that they cannot export them to the United States — there will likely be a strong U.S. push to move significant strategically important production out of China and back to the United States and possibly to even reduce sales to China.

The risk is that such a move will go too far, leading the United States to decouple more than it should and having it act unilaterally, not in coordination with other nations, which will cut off U.S. firms from the growing Chinese market.

该国需要更好地编写

如果危机有一个可能的光明面,那就是当时的时候正在发生它,而不是十年前。数字网络和系统并不像是那么好的或坚固。今天数百万人可以在家里在快速宽带网络上工作。人们可以在线获得娱乐和新闻。

They can stay in touch with their friends using internet platforms. But the crisis also shows how much more is still left to do. Too manygovernmentwebsitesare not in the cloud and are not mobile-friendly. Too many low-income households don’t have computing devices and can’t afford broadband. We don’t havenational legislation这使得远程健康服务能够跨国边界交付。我们没有广泛使用数字ID,允许人们远程签署文档。还有更多。多年来,ITIF表示政策能够实现所有这些和更多。危机应该是一个叫醒的叫醒。

Robert Atkinson

President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation @RobAtkinsonITIF

Robert Atkinson是信息技术和创新基金会,华盛顿特区,基于DC的政策智库的创始人和总裁。

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