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Rethinking Resilience in an Age of Fractures: The Outlook for 2021 and Beyond

大陆欧洲风险管理领导者,沼泽

At a societal and individual level, we continue to deal with the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic while striving to make progress on recovery efforts. As highlighted in the2021.Global Risks Reportprepared by the World Economic Forum with the support of Marsh & McLennan and other partners, the world is contending with a fractured future, where the disparities laid bare by the pandemic and the acceleration of risks such as cyber and climate must be carefully and creatively managed to produce a more sustainable and resilient future for people, businesses, communities and governments.

行业在十字路口

一个无序的工业目前波形的洗牌rway, with businesses under increasing pressure from inward-looking national agendas, greater tech concentration and dependency, and heightened public scrutiny.

In their immediate response to the pandemic, governments injected substantial stimulus into their economies. They continue to do so with the$1.9 trillion planunveiled by President-elect Joe Biden as the most recent example. However, in this quest for domestic resiliency and self-sufficiency, efforts may have been misdirected or overlooked certain industries and even restricted global supply chain and investment flows.

Smaller businesses are also facing increasing pressure from major competitors that have been able to leverage their resources to solidify their market position and expand. In the technology sector alone,dozens of acquisitionswere made by the largest players throughout 2020. As governments look to enhance market competitiveness through more interventionist means, businesses may be exposed to more scrutiny or experience ripple effects due to their greater dependence on major technology service providers impacted by tightening regulations.

投资者,消费者和员工的压力都是在重点社会问题上安装,从劳动和消费者保护公司伦理,不平等和气候变化。例如,在黑人生活的高度抗议活动,例如,成千上万的企业在社交平台上停止了广告。通过在关键问题上达到更坚定和更积极的立场的社会必要性,在这个关键的恢复期和未来,企业可以避免减少他们的收入,声誉和资本和人才的收入。

Technological Transformations Driving Increasing Cyber Exposures

The pandemic precipitated an unheralded technology revolution for big and small businesses alike. Rapid digitization transformed social and work interactions overnight. E-commerce, virtual conferencing, gaming and streaming all underwent unprecedented growth. By some estimates,internet use in 2020increased by 30% worldwide, withe-commerce expandingfrom 15% to more than 30% in major global markets.

This rapid digitization also exponentially increased companies’ cyber exposures and created more complex and potentially less secure networks. This year’s survey, in fact, highlighted the failure of cybersecurity measures as a top short-term risk. And throughout 2020, we’ve seen increasing cyberattacks ongovernment agencies and companiesglobally. Comparing the second half of 2019 to the first half of 2020, the volume of中青文erattacks doubled, with many leveraging the COVID-19 crisis for an entry point.

This monumental shift could create potential catastrophic risks on a longer horizon. Consider the long-term outlook for automation: It threatens to r解决8500万个工作岗位in just five years. The rush toward digitization, in response to the need for efficiency and reduced on-site labor, may further expose businesses to unforeseen security, regulatory, financial and ethical risks, particularly with more socially activist consumers and workforces concerned with further job losses.

Overlooked Environmental Risks?

In a year when the pandemic and its cascading impacts were a primary focus and surfaced as a top five risk in theGlobal Risks Report, environmental risks retained top spots as the most likely and consequential risks over the next decade. This should come as no surprise, with 2020 one of the costliest years on record for natural hazards and with the pandemic complicating responses to extreme weather events. Most of the$210 billion in globallosses from natural hazards globally were uninsured, compounding the recovery and resilience challenges for governments and society.

Looking forward, many governments are focusing on a “green recovery,” with green infrastructure and clean energy project investment central to their stimulus packages. Over146 such plans and programswere introduced, announced, proposed or implemented in 2020. The funding dedicated to such efforts has dispelled the myth that governments do not have the financial capacity or will to support more rapid decarbonization and energy-efficiency transitions. Lower consumption levels and demand for oil, if they persist, also may provide grounds for further accelerating regulatory action.

Business will benefit from investing in sustainability transitions now, leveraging increasing government-provided incentives, rather than risking forced timetables and a more disorderly and costly transition.

A Complicated Geopolitical Landscape

地中国景观继续被美国 - 中国竞争的塑造,其他国家必须导航棘轮紧张局势。这对可能缺乏超级大国地位的国家具有限制机会,但仍然在国际关系中发挥有影响力的角色,以创造有意义的多边伙伴关系并解决重要的全球挑战。

Further complicating the outlook has been countries’ varying successes dealing with COVID-19, which set back cooperation and diplomacy in many instances as countries turned inward to protect their own people. More than90 jurisdictions implementedcontrols over the export of medical supplies and medicine in 2020.

Although some partnerships have been strengthened in 2020, notably the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership between 15 Asia-Pacific countries and upgrades to ties between the EU and ASEAN to a “strategic partnership,” concerns still persist on critical global risks. Progress in important areas most in need of multilateral cooperation — such as trade, security, health and, notably, technology governance and climate change — remains at risk of being seriously impeded.

Creating a More Resilient and Sustainable Future

面对战略不确定性和复杂的新兴威胁,Global Risks Reportserves as an important resource for businesses seeking to transfer lessons learned from the pandemic crisis to pressing global issues and their associated emerging risks. It also serves as a reminder that companies should remain vigilant about “forgotten risks” that may seem low in probability, but are potentially catastrophic in their impacts and their interactions with other perennial risks.

The pandemic has forced conversations on how we understand, prepare and manage risks — particularly emerging and complex risks — in a fast-changing environment. During a volatile recovery period, critical questions on risk ownership and governance are being asked, and new approaches to management — within organizations, across the public and private sectors and across borders — are being explored.

Business should use this opportunity and the report to understand, identify, and explore this complex risk ecosystem. It requires considering the potential for intersecting and cascading risks that could impact them in unique ways. These novel threats should be factored into strategy and decision-making, and appropriate responses should be devised. Throughout this process, businesses should also assess the extent to which different units and leaders think about risk, are empowered to reduce it, and collaborate to move toward organizational resilience. This will involve evaluating trade-offs in achieving true agility and resilience, finding the balance between efficiency and robustness, and carefully weighing risk acceptance, mitigation and transfer.

By keeping an eye on potentially high-impact events across the risk landscape, and by evolving into more prepared and responsive organizations, businesses should be able to enhance their resilience and successfully navigate the risks and opportunities ahead.

卡罗莱纳克林斯

大陆欧洲风险管理领导者,沼泽

卡罗莱纳克林斯is the Risk Management Leader in Continental Europe for Marsh. She also heads Marsh’s inclusion and diversity programs in the region. She speaks frequently about values-based leadership, empowerment for breakthrough results and the importance of diversity.

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