风险的边缘 菜单 Search
关于全球经济的企业风险与恢复力的新思考。

Quick Takes

Climate Risk Costs Increased by $60 Billion in 40 Years

Source: Brookings analysis of NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information data

注意:气候灾害是指干旱,洪水,冻结,冬季风暴,严重风暴,热带气旋和野火,每次至少10亿美元

Climate disasters in the United States have accounted for over $1.8 trillion in economic costs since 1980. The country has endured over 285 climate-related catastrophes in the past 41 years that cost at least $1 billion each,根据Brookings Institute. These disasters are becoming more frequent and intense: In the 2010s alone, they cost $81 billion per year — up from $18 billion per year in the 1980s.

Flooding作为最常见的威胁之一,影响沿海社区比其他社区更严重。布鲁克斯指出“减轻和适应这些压力将需要更多的弹性基础设施系统。”

Brookings laid out a three-part framework for the federal government to address urgent climate risks: measuring infrastructure needs, modernizing physical assets and experimenting with new technologies. And President Joe Biden recently released a$2 trillion plan改善基础设施在未来八年内转向绿色能量。

气候首脑会议领导者自2015年以来阐述了最大的排放量

Source: CAIT, Climate Action Tracker, Marsh McLennan Advantage

Note: 34 parties including the U.S. were analyzed from the 40 World Leaders invited to the Leaders Summit on Climate. Leaders from the European Commission, European Council, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain were aggregated into one party—the “European Union”—for analysis. Total emissions data from 2018 was used and includes Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LUCF) and all greenhouse gases (CH4, CO2, F-Gas, N2O, etc.). Other parties not listed make up 1.9% of global emissions including, Chile, Jamaica, Antigua and Barbuda, Norway, Israel, Kenya, Gabon, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Singapore, Bhutan, Marshall Islands. The horizontal length of each region in the chart represents the share of total emissions of participants.

The Climate Leaders Summit last week set out the single biggest reduction in the global emissions gap since Paris, shaving off around two gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent from 2030 emissions. (See footnotes 3 and 4 below.) Nevertheless, the emissions gap remains enormous — with around 29 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent left to address before the world can be on a 1.5 degree-Celsius pathway.

峰会的参与者负责81%的全球排放,10个最大的发射者占全球总数的三分之二。他们的关键目标是宣布修订的2030年减排目标在COP26之前。

在那些参加,美国,加拿大和日本宣布了新的2030年目标。美国未来将排放量减少50-52%至2005年的级别,到2030年,负责近80%的储蓄在峰会上承诺的近80%。

1.宣布计划加强国家气候领导人峰会的国家核武器官。2.加强或宣布计划在首脑会议之前加强NDC。3.为了计算美国排放储蓄,我们为基线假设,从2025年到2030年的排放趋势将是2005 - 2015年趋势的延续。4.对于提出新的排放量目标范围的国家,使用中点。

信任仍然是Covid期间幸福的关键决定因素

Source: World Happiness 9th Report

芬兰在2018年至2020年之间的整体幸福中排名最高,其次是其北欧邻居丹麦和瑞士。2021年世界幸福报告每天跟踪95个国家三个主要指标of citizen wellbeing: life evaluation, positive emotions and negative emotions.

Finland’s ranking was buoyed by its successful management of the pandemic early on. It was able to contain the virus and saw mild economic changes in 2020 compared to its European neighbors. Citizens in Finland had a lower fear of catching COVID-19 and were more likely to wear masks. Both Finland and Denmark saw small changes in unemployment rates in 2020, with young and low-skilled workers less likely to lose their jobs.

不出所料,去年42个国家的负面情绪更频繁,而积极的情绪保持不变。由于各国继续在不同的步伐中恢复,报告指出,在确定他们的幸福水平时对个人最重要的是,该报告指出,在机构和政府中,还要信任,或者对他人的仁慈 - 是最重要的。

巴西进一步落后于其他国家恢复努力

Source: Morning Consult

Economic conditions in Brazil are worse now than during the first wave of the pandemic. Consumer confidence also continued declining in April 2021,根据Morning Consult. While other countries are reporting a在他们的经济中反弹, Brazil is falling further behind.

The global demand for Brazilian goods rose as two of Brazil’s largest importers — the U.S. and China — saw growth in their economic activity, resulting in increased costs for Brazilian goods. However, these price increases are making it more difficult for Brazilians to pay for basic necessities, such as food. In March, the country reported a surge in food shortages and insecurity. “If price pressures continue,” wrote Morning Consult, “the 9.8% of Brazilians who lacked adequate food to eat could rapidly suffer from frequent hunger.”

与巴西的科夫德相关死亡平均每天达到3,000人,as of April 17, and hospitals are running out ofcritical medical supplies. Complicating the country’s response to COVID, vaccine distribution rollouts remain slow, and a more contagious strain has begun to circulate across the country.

Low-Income Countries Need Billions for COVID Recovery

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook as of March 3, 2021

Note: All spending assumed to be broken down into 50% public consumption and 50% public investment

Low-income countries need around $200 billion between now and 2025 to sufficiently respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMFestimates that这些国家 - 特别是在中东,中亚和撒哈拉以南非洲 - 需要额外的2500亿亿美元来赶上经济的高度经济水平 - 另外1000亿美元用于任何意外风险。

大流行对低收入国家进行了沉重的损失,因为已经有限地获得财政资源,缺乏货币政策支持,对特定部门和升级的债务水平仍然依赖。5500亿美元将允许这些国家更广泛地分发疫苗,应对财务困境和更好地管理生产力表现。

The international community providedshort-term assistanceto these countries by supporting banking systems on debt-service relief. For low-income countries to have a shot at recovery, however, the IMF states that “there will need to be a coordinated, multifaceted, strong response” to help support these countries with vaccine distribution, technological advancements and climate risks.

边缘的日常通讯提供关于企业风险和弹性的新思路。 Subscribe