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关于全球经济中企业风险和弹性的新思考。
经济

今年是经济“失去的十年”之一吗?

A BRINK interview with

国际货币基金组织的最新经济数据表明,冠状病毒和随后的封锁将导致全球GDP萎缩188bet投注网站至少3%this year. To get some insight into whether we might expect a quick or long recovery from that, BRINK turned to Moisés Naím, distinguished fellow at the卡内基国际和平基金会,并担任该杂志的首席国际专栏作家厄尔巴ís,西班牙最大的报纸。

上世纪90年代初,北美ím曾任委内瑞拉贸易和工业部长、委内瑞拉央行行长和世界银行执行董事。布林克的执行编辑汤姆·卡弗首先问了安娜í如果他认为这场危机不同于全球经济以前必须面对的任何事情。

NAÍM: Of course, this is new, but it’s also early days. We don’t know how it will evolve. If we have a vaccine in six months or so, that’s one outcome. But if it takes a couple of years, or if it becomes a chronic thing in which it becomes seasonal, it’s a completely different ball game.

但我确实发现了一些与之前危机的相似之处,比如2008年和9/11。第一,对危机的反应比引发危机的事件触及更多的生命,造成更多的后果。想想9/11,有3000多人死亡。但对它的反应是在人类生命、经济后果和地缘政治动荡方面付出的代价要高得多。二十年后,对这些袭击的反应的影响至今仍与我们同在。

The second common factor in the big crises of the last half century is an overestimation of their consequences. If you look at the media coverage, opinion columns, TV political discourse and even scholarly seminars and papers during these crises, you find that the common wisdom was that the event was a world-altering game-changer, and that nothing would remain the same. In reality, what happened is that while some important changes did indeed occur and affected parts of the world, none changed the entire world.

过渡期变成永久性的

And the third commonality is that this crisis generates situations in which what we thought was permanent — institutions, ideologies, political and economic arrangements, business models, habits — ended up being transitional. And what we thought was temporary became permanent.

在当前的危机中,远程工作就是一个很好的例子,一个标志性的例子。当然,在COVID-19之前,在家工作的人已经成为一种趋势,但并不是很明显。现在,大多数公司和政府将有在家工作的计划,即使疫情消退。

卡弗:这场危机的一个特点是石油价格急剧下跌。很明显,你在委内瑞拉有丰富的资源经济管理经验。你认为这次降价是长期的还是短期的?

NAÍM: What no one could anticipate was that the drop in demand for oil was going to be as significant as it was. It was a result of the measures taken by governments to deal with the coronavirus that essentially stopped the economies in their tracks in unprecedented ways.

The conversation and the debates about oil used to be centered on production levels and prices. Now the conversation has shifted to competition for markets, clients and storage facilities. We are far from the days when producers called the shots.

低油,久油

This is going to be part of what is going to stay with us, oil for low for long. I’m not suggesting that we’re going to have oil permanently at $25 a barrel; it may go up, may go down, but it’s not going to be near $80 or $90 levels that we have seen. There were even brief moments in which oil prices reached three digits. I don’t see that ever coming back.

我看到很多被困的资产,这意味着油田在经济上不可行,因此被留在地下。我还看到了对这个行业的重新定义,最能说明问题的是,Netflix今天的估值高于埃克森美孚。

卡弗:How long do you think it’s going to be possible for governments to continue to support and pay the wages of workers who have lost their jobs and may not have jobs to come back to?

在短期内,我们将面临由COVID-19引发的政治动荡、经济平庸和经济停滞。

不适用ÍM:当然要看国家的情况。如果全世界都在用你的钱,你还有很长的路要走,因为你可以把钱印出来。当然,我想的是美国。

到目前为止,几乎所有的经济崩溃都有两个主角在当前的危机中失踪。一个是通货膨胀,另一个是贬值。美国刚刚推出的刺激计划相当于GDP的14%。这是相当惊人的,它是非常令人惊讶的第一,它有多大,第二,它的刺激作用是多么有限。

通货膨胀在起作用

And yet very few people believe that such a massive monetary expansion in public spending will spur inflation. In the past, that would have been the case. It hasn’t happened. And the second is devaluation of the dollar. Again, we have not seen that.

更广泛地说,正如拉里•萨默斯(larrysummers)所警告的那样,我们越来越有可能进入长期停滞期。低利率已不再像过去那样成为投资和消费的有力推动者。

卡弗:你认为这场危机是否增加了引入某种永久性全民基本收入的可能性?

NAÍM: We have a very large number of countries that, in one way or another, are doling out cash to their populations in different forms. But there’s a lot we still don’t know about this crisis.

We don’t know how fiscally sustainable this is, and there’s plenty that we don’t know about the long-term effect of these instruments. But it’s already happening. It’s happening in many European countries and in emerging markets.

卡弗:你对发展中世界经济体的未来有何看法?它们显然还有其他挑战,如基础设施薄弱、社会安全网薄弱等等。

不适用ÍM:不幸的是,这是一个可怕的观点。这些新兴市场很大程度上依赖于原材料和矿物、碳氢化合物、农产品和一般大宗商品的出口。所有这些大宗商品的价格都已下跌,并将持续下跌,直到世界经济强劲复苏。

失去的十年即将来临?

其中许多国家还相当严重地依赖其居住在国外的公民的汇款并将钱汇回其家庭。世界银行(worldbank)的数据显示,今年汇款将减少20%左右。随着旅游业的发展,信贷和外国投资流量都急剧下降。资本外逃,通货膨胀上升,货币贬值是常见的,数额巨大,当然,破坏性很大。

So there are some economists predicting that this could be year one of a lost decade for the emerging markets. In the eighties, you may recall, as a result of the debt crisis, there was a lost decade, at least for Latin America, in which economies were stagnating and social policies had to be curtailed. It created a lot of human suffering and political repercussions.

Let’s hope we can avoid it this time, but surely the signals are not good.

卡弗:That’s a depressing thought. With all the years of experience you have, do you feel optimistic or fundamentally pessimistic about what is going to happen over the next few years, both economically and politically?

不适用ÍM:从长远来看,你总是乐观的。最终,人类解决了重大问题,最终,一些人得到了很好的结果,尽管不是每个人都得到了很好的结果。但在短期内,我们将面临政治动荡、经济平庸和经济停滞的局面。这将培育一个高度动荡的环境。188bet滚球投注

莫伊斯é不适用í米

Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace @潮湿

莫伊斯é不适用ím是一位杰出的学者卡内基国际和平基金会和an internationally syndicated columnist. He was the editor in chief of Foreign Policy magazine from 1996 to 2010 and the author of bestsellers like非法的权力的终结. 他在Twitter上的@moisesnaim。

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