风险的边缘 菜单 Search
关于全球经济的企业风险与恢复力的新思考。
188手机网址

Mexico’s Decisive Third Year Under President AMLO

andrésmanuellópezobrador(广泛称为Amlo - 他的第三年在办公室里赶上了他的普及仍然骑高。虽然他的受欢迎程度从历史的高位下降了,但至少60%的墨西哥人仍然赞成他们的“Teflon”的领导者。在今天的拉丁美洲,这种高温行为是无与伦比的。

但2021年可能是Amlo总统的“休息年份”第四个转型” of Mexico. Like everywhere else, the pandemic is exacerbating pre-existing societal fissures. Mexico’s notorious three “I’s” — inequality, insecurity and illegality — are deepening. In half a year, midterm elections will test whether his administration has the popular support to amend Mexico’s constitution.

问题正在堆积起来

Criticism of Mexico’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic is growing. Mexico enters 2021 trailing only the United States, Brazil and India for the number ofdeathsfrom coronavirus, and the World Health Organization has警告在Covid-19案件和死亡人数的飙升之后,墨西哥“造型不好”。

墨西哥人的钱包也遭受痛苦。经济看到它worst slump在八十年里,1.1 millionpeople lost their jobs from March to June. Mexico’s central bank forecasts that GDP will contract by 9% in 2020. Yet President AMLO, wary of the financial devastation of the Tequila Crisis nearly a quarter century ago, has declined to boost government spending. Mexico has dedicated only0.7% of its GDPto address the crisis — by comparison, fiscal stimulus accounted for 13% of the U.S., as well as Germany’s GDP.

Security is also deteriorating.Homicidesin Mexico over the last two years have risen to their highest levels in six decades. 2020 is on track toset another record。2020年6月,一个毒品帮派的巨向assassination attemptagainst Mexico City’s police chief shocked the nation.Anti-femicideprotests are growing in Mexico, where nearly 80% of women不要觉得安全,根据2020年政府调查。

President AMLO has netted few tangible victories from his anti-corruption drive, a centerpiece of his campaign platform in 2018. During his first two years in office, he has ignored calls to appoint 18 magistrates to the federal anti-graft system set up by his predecessor. In 2019, self-reported acts ofcorruptionjumped 19% from 2017, and 78% of all government contracts were awarded without a public bidding process.

与私营部门的战斗

也许ps most ominously, expect continued strain between the AMLO administration and the private sector in 2021. Even before the pandemic sparked massive资本飞行,总统的民粹主义政策与商业界发生冲突。他的政府报废了一个180亿美元的机场已经半建成了withheld federal permitsto a $1.4 billion brewery — after $900 million had been spent on the nearly completed project.

在能源项目周围可能会发生与业务社区的大裂缝。在过去的两年里,AMLO总统的政府有破坏了墨西哥2013 - 2014年的能源改革,有限的国家参与能源部门赞成私人投资。Amlo总统加强了国有帕梅内克和CFE的市场职位,在开发的开发和150个可再生项目和400亿美元的风险投资中投入。

Despite a challenging landscape ahead, President AMLO’s continued popularity shows that the usual rules don’t always apply.

Scaring off investors could have real-world consequences. It could lead to higher electricity costs for Mexican industry and manufacturing, thus also undermining employment and global competitiveness. It also undercuts Mexico’s ability to meet its清洁能源目标,它已经偏离了轨道。反投资者政策也可以削减努力,以加速近的近似manufacturingfrom China to Mexico.

Put It to a Vote?

废除墨西哥的能量化妆需要宪法修正案。改变宪法不是一项简单的任务;AMLO总统需要批准两国大会的三分之二,以及32个州中的17个。目前,Amlo总统的莫雷娜派对及其盟友在墨西哥大会的下部和参议院举行了多数:但不是三分之二。

The chance will come soon. Legislative elections in June will see Mexicans vote for the 500 seats of the lower house of the national congress and, in almost half the states, for their congresses and governors.

The challenges are abundant, and Morena has seen some fierce internal权力斗争最近。但能源改革可以证明有效的方法来分散流行病和社会经济低玻璃的注意力。AMLO总统也使其成为个人 - 通过提出一个宪法可疑的公投mid-term voteto validate his presidency.

Irrespective of the election result — and adding to the investment confusion — the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement, which took effect in July 2020, could rein in a more radical policy agenda. When it comes to energy, for example, Mexico committed itself to at least maintaining the level of openness that existed before the trade pact, and foreign firms can sue the government if it back-peddles.

平衡行动北方

Mexico could also face difficulties in 2021 from the incoming Biden administration. President AMLO’s close relationship with outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump was surprising, but it ultimately came down to a simple political exchange: As long as Mexico assisted instemming migration向美国而言,美国不会干涉墨西哥在改善人权方面的明显记录,减轻气候变化协调和减少暴力。

President-elect Joe Biden is not likely to give Mexico the same pass. He is likely to press Mexico — privately and in public — on issues like labor practices, the environment and democratic behavior. President AMLO’s energy plans will clash with the White House’s new climate agenda. We could see Mexico reverting to the“anti-colonial” rhetoric自70年代早期以来没看到。

事情并没有成为一个很棒的开始。Amlo总统是最后一位正式祝贺他胜利的总统选举竞选活动的领导者之一,墨西哥可能很快急剧大幅度limit cooperation与美国斗争反对非法药物。

超越粗糙的补丁

Despite a challenging landscape ahead, President AMLO’s continued popularity shows that the usual rules don’t always apply. Opposition parties have been largely ineffective in coalescing a common message and working together, and President AMLO’s low-key lifestyle and personal reputation as incorruptible goes a long way in a country wracked by public office scandals.

andrésmanuellopezobrador总裁只有三分之一的六年学期 - 时间就在他身边。

Peter Schechter.

Host of Altamar Global Issues Podcast and BRINK columnist @PDSchechter

Peter Schechter.is host of the阿尔玛尔全球问题播客。他还是大西洋理事会拉丁美洲中心的前创始总监。他可以在推特上找到@PDSchechter

BRINK’s daily newsletter offers new thinking on corporate risk and resilience. 订阅