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伊朗回到了西方的议程

一个Altamar Podcast采访

伊朗在头条新闻中再次。其恢复核计划,最近与中国的贸易协定和以色列的酝酿紧张局促使伊朗回到外交政策议程的顶端。这一切都是背景维也纳新一轮核会谈that is getting underway between the U.S. administration and Iranian negotiators.

Johns Hopkins University先进国际研究学院的前院长Vali Nasr和什叶岛伊斯兰教的世界领先权当归之一加入Altamar HostsPeter Schechter和Muni Jensen在他们最新的播客剧集,讨论伊朗的快速变化动态。NASR是一个着名的伊朗美国学术,曾担任美国政府的高级顾问,是作者The Dispensable Nation和中东的其他书籍。

2015年,伊朗和P5 + 1(美国,U.K.,法国,德国,俄罗斯和中国)经历了一项称为联合综合行动计划(JCPOA) to achieve nuclear de-escalation. In return for pausing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the West lifted its strangling economic sanctions. But in 2017, the U.S. administration abruptly pulled out of the deal, and Iran retaliated by resuming its nuclear program, as was highlighted inan Altamar podcast去年4月。

紧张局势再次旋转

4月初,伊朗的纳坦核设施爆炸与以色列颠覆有关。当JCPOA谈判在维也纳重新审议时,这是背景,谈判的结果很难预测。在伊朗是否仍然是可能的?美国和伊朗是否会与完全合规返回协议?

The backdrop of the Vienna nuclear talks is less than ideal. The region has changed, and the political atmosphere is now different — both in Iran and in the United States. “It’s much more difficult to cut a deal not only because of the hardened politics, but also because Russia and China have really expanded their influence,” notes Altamar’s Muni Jensen.

America’s pullout from the JCPOA in 2017 created a lot of resentment in Iran. “Iranians believed that all Trump-era sanctions were put on Iran in bad faith. Iran was in full compliance, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in January 2017. And [former President Donald] Trump moved out of the deal and put sanctions on Iran. So, Iranians now believe that full compliance with America means going back to 2017,” says Nasr.

伊朗选举即将来临

Nasr points out that concessions are unlikely anytime soon since Iran faces a very important presidential election in June.

“More than likely, we’re going to see a more hardline Iranian candidate win the presidency, and that will immediately impact the nuclear talks. A new team also means that you’re not going to be even continuing the nuclear conversation till September when they come in. And then, after that, you’re going to have fresh faces who won the election on the basis of being tough with the U.S.,” Nasr notes.

Furthermore, the U.S. is no longer the only player in the Middle East.

“The Biden administration is facing a number of issues. … They’re facing a more direct confrontation with China, which requires deployment of military assets and diplomatic assets … and they’re dealing with an aggressive Russia,” explains Nasr. The economic influence of China is growing in the region, and Russia’s support for various regional governments and factions are affecting the Middle East’s balance of power.

When it comes to the most recent, alleged attack by Israel, Nasr notes, the decision to respond is a political hot potato in Iran.

“Generally, the security forces and the conservatives had continuously blamed dual citizens and put the more moderate and liberal forces in prison. And yet, the most serious security breaches in Iran have happened in areas where they are responsible for security,” says Nasr.

伊朗正在玩长期游戏

“我认为[伊朗]将暂缓retaliation,” explains Nasr, “because they know that the Israelis are baiting them and that Israelis would love for Iran to do something that would shift the discussion away from the nuclear talks to Iran’s behavior and would, in fact, get the United States into a direct confrontation with Iran. So, they don’t want to play Israel’s game.”

尽管是世界上最年轻的社会之一,但年轻的伊朗人非常多样化。“这不仅仅是年轻人都是西西方自由主义者。这是一个很大的部分,但也是他们在街上部署的大多数革命卫队也是高中辍学和年轻人。

所有人都放在一起,伊朗人想要一个不同的国家。

They want a country that is engaged in the world, that is respected, that is doing trade and business with the world, and that domestically is much more open. And there are things that any young generation wants, which is different from the older generation … the power elite in Iran are very old. And the people that they rule across the board are very young. Iran is well set for change. We just don’t know how it’s going to happen, and in which direction.”

阿尔玛尔是一个由前大西洋委员会高级副总裁彼得舍克特和屡获殊荣的记者·穆尼森举办的全球政治博士。

订阅Altamar Podcast On:苹果Spotify., 或者谷歌

Vali Nasr.

John Hopkins University中东研究与国际事务教授 @vali_nasr.

纳赛尔是国米的Majid教授和油价大幅下滑构筑一个底线national Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. He served as the eighth Dean of Johns Hopkins SAIS between 2012 and 2019 and served as Senior Advisor to U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke between 2009 and 2011.

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