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Intensifying Confrontations and Deepening Long-Term Threats: The Prospects for 2020 and Beyond

这new decade holds immense promise for societal, economic and technological advances. At the same time, as highlighted in the2020 Global Risks Report由世界经济论坛增刊ort of Marsh McLennan and other partners, the world faces intensifying confrontations between and within countries, as well as escalating long-term threats from climate change and biodiversity loss. Emerging technologies are also amplifying some short-term risks and creating new risks, for example, with the increasingly pervasive deployments of artificial intelligence.

一个不明显的地缘政治景观

冲突继续在中东持续存在,北亚的紧张局势正在增长,南海有持续的问题。多边机构在协调围绕关键问题方面的作用受到国家政治议程的挑战,许多国家选择伪造自己的道路。

Economic confrontations between major powers have also been intensifying, reflected in the escalation of tariffs and trade disputes as well as increasing investment restrictions worldwide.

虽然美国和中国之间的交易紧张局势最近,大多数风险专家都认为2020年主要国家之间的主要国家之间的经济对抗程度的总体水平。公共和私营部门的高债务水平也在提高经济脆弱性。

Source: Global Risks Report, 2020

国家也面临着国内政治的深化骨折,社会日益极化,许多地区的抗议程度越来越大。We have seen this in the U.K. with the frictions underpinning Brexit, in the partisan politics in the U.S., which will further intensify in the run up to the presidential election in 2020, and in the social unrest driven by systemic economic inequality in Latin America, Africa and Europe. Disapproval of how governments are addressing fundamental social and economic issues is sparking protests in the streets, for example, in Chile and Hong Kong. Domestic political polarization ranks as one of the risks most likely to continue increasing in this year’s全球风险报告

技术正在放大国内和国际对抗。在国内,新的数字技术在网上产生了假新闻和极端主义内容,这些内容已经为骨折,侵蚀了信任和燃料骚乱。技术还促进了国家附属网络中的州际冲突,在临界基础设施上明显,以及各国在收购敏感技术方面的战略竞争和冲突。

Growing Urgency on Environmental Risks

今年最引人注目的方面全球风险报告这是前五大的长期风险都在环境领域。188bet滚球投注

对气候变化的担忧在过去的10年里一直在上升,所有关键指标都指向糟糕的情况变得更糟。最近的极端天气事件的频率和强度的峰值已经涉及进一步提升担忧。

极地冰比预期更快地融化,对海平面上升有重大影响。由于沿海和低洼地区的气候变化和快速城市化的结合,世界人口的日益增长的比例受到灾难性的洪水风险。

澳大利亚正在经历一个大型野火紧急情况,烧毁了超过500万公顷的野火,加州的灾难性2018年野火季节造成了超过220亿美元的直接财产损害。在季节性温度和降雨中的转变是破坏性的作物产量,增加了依赖农业产出的国家的压力,并加强水资源纠纷。

在今年的风险排名中,生物多样性损失也显着增加。

最近的报告提高了对社会的不可逆转后果,从物种内部和物种之间的生物多样性的丧失,这威胁着粮食安全和 - 在恶性循环 - 放大气候变化影响。例如,对珊瑚礁的损坏增加了洪水风险,亚马逊的森林砍伐增加了干旱和火灾的潜力。

Climate change activism is growing, and governments are facing mounting pressure to strengthen their efforts to address climate change mitigation and adaptation. This pressure and demand for action is also being channeled to the private sector. Companies should actively monitor legislative and regulatory developments so they don’t get caught out by unexpected policy changes or regulation and prepare for increasing pressure on climate issues from all of their stakeholders: investors, customers, employees and communities.

随着更多各国政府的强制性公司披露气候风险,公司将受益于此地区的更严格的风险量化和情景规划。

Health Care Systems Are on Life Support

全球风险报告还强调了在全球对医疗保健的紧迫感的紧迫感。飙升的社会护理和健康需求和非传染性疾病(NCDS)和心理健康障碍的兴起正在增加已经拉长的全球卫生系统的菌株。NCDS每年占4100万人死亡人员,预计该号码到2030年的人数将达到5200万。抑郁和焦虑症也在上升 - 目前全球7亿人估计有心理健康障碍。

Source: Global Risks Report, 2020

As an example of interconnected risks, climate change is further exacerbating the strain on health systems globally. Weather-related disruptions to health include air pollution, food and water insecurity and an increase in infectious diseases due to rising temperatures.

技术风险仍然是企业的关键问题

Cyber​​attacks仍然是发达经济体的商业领袖的1号风险问题,而互联网部署的快速扩张基本上扩大了许多公司的网络攻击面。数据欺诈和盗窃也是商业界的高级风险。

这re are also growing concerns with respect to the potential threats stemming from artificial intelligence — including safety, privacy and bias risks — and business leaders face increasing societal mistrust of emerging technologies generally.

在公共部门的新兴技术风险方面存在有限的发展进展。一些企业正在加强对技术治理的内部方法 - 例如,通过推出AI伦理框架或专门委员会来监督AI - 随着领导者的努力,伴随着部署这些技术的广泛影响。

改善恢复力和捕获机会

全球风险报告is a useful reference point for companies to consider external threats and their organization’s resilience to them as well the potential growth opportunities that may stem from them. Focus should center on three areas.

首先,商业领袖应严格识别和评估其公司源于当前全球风险景观的潜在干扰的潜在来源。围绕个人或相互联系的全球风险的潜在影响的风险量化和情景规划有助于确定商业创新,运营恢复力和风险偏好之间的潜在紧张局势。

其次,他们应该审查他们的风险预防和反应计划,特别关注他们的业务是否已准备好有效地应对,以产生可能影响运营和声誉的快速活动。该过程可以促进早期警告指标的发现和实施,从而在危机产生时会发生快速决策和响应接触。

最后,企业应考虑如何通过追求其组织与变革方向对齐的增长和投资策略来将全球风险转化为机遇。

例如,与气候风险有关,许多企业正在评估其物理和过渡风险概况,以考虑其供应链漏洞,并满足法律,监管和投资者的要求。

可以利用相同的分析,以考虑将从气候变化的演变中创造的新的和扩大产品和市场机会 - 例如,可再生能源,可持续性联系或更多的一般创新,将吸引客户,投资者和员工对这个问题的敏感性增加。

这complex, multivector nature of these risks won’t make it easy for companies to navigate the coming decade. It will require a constant weather eye on the geopolitical landscape, innovation and agility in technology, and a willingness to adapt supply chains and business models to accommodate the rapidly changing climate. But for those who do succeed, the rewards will be well worth it.

John Drzik

Marsh McLennan洞察董事长188bet如何安装

John P. Drzik是Marsh McLennan Insights的主席,一个研188bet如何安装究小组专注于确定突破性的观点和对社会最复杂的挑战的解决方案。他经常立即撰写并发言,并及时发言,风险管理和保险问题。约翰以前担任沼泽的全球风险和数字司总裁,他的职责包括咨询,分析和数字保险解决方案。在此之前,他是Oliver Wyman的首席执行官。约翰在国际风险治理委员会和沃顿金融机构中心担任咨询委员会。

边缘的日常通讯提供关于企业风险和弹性的新思路。 订阅