风险的边缘 菜单 Search
关于全球经济的企业风险与恢复力的新思考。
经济

位于英国经济从科米德中恢复过多有多好?

In the last year, the U.K. economy has been hit by both the pandemic and Brexit. On top of that, the U.K. has一个具有法律约束力的目标2050年碳排放量净零,这将需要对经济的重大结构变化。

Alex Chapman是U.K.新经济学基础的高级研究员。边缘向他询问他对他认为U.K.经济可能会在未来两年内进行的评估。

CHAPMAN: The pandemic marked the end of a period of 10 years of public austerity in the U.K., with a particularly low level of state benefits and other social protections compared to most of our European neighbors. Adult participation in education has also been at a three-decade low, and there is pretty stagnant economic growth as a result of Brexit. So, in many respects, we are not well prepared for the structural changes that are needed.

U.K.现在致力于迁移到零碳经济。仍然有关于需要发生的速度,并且完全有多快,所涉及的结构变化是多么深刻,但该国致力于在立法中,因此发生变化即可。

的一件事使我们在一个稍微favorable position is the existence of historically low interest rates, which has given the government a huge amount of breathing room in terms of being able to invest and to borrow.

Permanent Job Losses

边缘:Has the pandemic accelerated structural unemployment?

CHAPMAN: Yes, absolutely. There’s pretty broad agreement now that some of the changes we’ve seen from the pandemic will be permanent. People are going to go to the office less, business travel is going to decline, potentially the services around office space and supporting services might decline as well. And that’s going to have a significant effect on the economy.

Our analysis, based on the Office of Budget Responsibility’s estimates of structural employment, suggests we’re looking at potentially around 500,000 people directly losing their jobs in sectors where their job is now permanently gone, as opposed to jobs that might come back as the recovery unfolds. This means that these workers are potentially going to have to make some kind of occupational sector shift.

That’s just the COVID impact, before we even talk about the climate crisis, Brexit, and of course, long-term automation, which is another structural shift in the economy.

The Need for Big Structural Shifts

边缘:With regard to the path to net zero by 2050, how quickly do you expect those changes to occur?

查普曼:一些最大的班次必须在接下来的两到五年内发生,特别是在改造建筑物和住房方面。为此,您需要高档一个非常重要的建筑业,以及可再生能源劳动力,已经正在进行中。

这对已经在建筑和改造行业工作的人来说,这是一个好消息,但是需要巨大的扩张。可能,我们可以谈论增长50%。

Whether we’re talking about the pandemic recovery or the climate crisis, the key thing to bear in mind is that the cost of不是投资这些问题远远大于投资成本。

We see similar trends in the electric vehicle rollout. The government’s got targets around phasing out diesel and petrol vehicles, which means, again, huge investment in electric vehicle infrastructure, electric vehicle manufacture, etc. This requires a structural shift in the economy as well, albeit potentially slightly less significant than the one in housing and building retrofit.

To prevent climate breakdown, the shift to zero carbon needs to happen quickly, but we can’t lose sight of the welfare of workers in sectors affected by such a transition and their need for good quality, stable employment.

边缘:是否有要求自然地改变收入和税收来源来支付这项问题?

CHAPMAN: Well, whether we’re talking about the pandemic recovery or the climate crisis, the key thing to bear in mind is that the cost of不是投资这些问题远远大于投资成本。

A lot is being made in the U.K. at the moment about the size of our debt as a ratio to GDP. But I think a lot of that is essentially scaremongering or a poor understanding of the economic context that we’re in, which is one of extremely low interest rates, where the Bank of England is essentially covering most of the government’s debt.

If interest rates start to rise, the only scenario where that’s likely to happen is where we’ve actually got good rates of economic growth returning. So the economy would be getting bigger at that point and, therefore, able to carry more of the costs of interest-rate rises. So, we don’t see significant fiscal risks, if you like, to greater levels of public spending.

Economic Inequity

边缘:您认为所有这些变化会导致更平等的经济吗?这也将是这种结构调整的侧面好处吗?

查普曼:这是一个重要的问题,因为我们知道更多的平等经济通常更加富有成效。但肯定没有保证我们现在正在进行的恢复将改善U.K的社会不平等态势的迅速恶化。

There’s some people who aren’t very mobile in the labor force. There are people who, if they lose their job in one place, because of housing prices and rent prices, can’t relocate to where the jobs are. And there’s people who can’t afford to cover their living costs while they go through education and training and upskilling.

And a key thing to remember is that the industries of the future, the green industries that we’ve been talking about, are industries that have typically been heavily dominated by certain demographic groups. The construction sector, for example, which is likely to receive a lot of investment through the COVID recovery phase, is an extremely white male-dominated industry.

政府Reactivity

One last point is that of the government’s strategy so far and how reactive it’s been. The government has been extending deadlines every three months, and then the deadline always shifts. That means businesses are finding it extremely difficult to know what’s going to come next.

We had the job retention bonus that was going to be given out to firms; that was quietly scrapped. We had the Green Homes Grant scheme, which was going to create tens of thousands of jobs and kickstart the recovery; that scheme has now been dramatically scaled back.

什么企业为确定性和熟练和移动的劳动力哭泣,并且在此刻而言,该结构并不能够实现这一目标。

Alex Chapman

新经济学基础的高级研究员

Alex Chapman is a senior researcher at the新经济学基础in the U.K. Alex leads research into the impacts of the pandemic, and the U.K. government’s policy response in areas such as job protection, skills, and business support. As a member of the Environment and Green Transition team, his wider work focuses on the transition to zero carbon.

    边缘的日常通讯提供关于企业风险和弹性的新思路。 订阅