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斯堪的纳维亚州风化科米德的风化如何?

今年,北欧国家庆祝50年的赫尔辛基条约,在其成员之间建立了密切的政治合作。然而,而不是庆祝,北欧似乎是一种温和的身份危机形式。

Cross-border freedom of movement has been put on hold by COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns. Mutual trust, a rare commodity that has put Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark and Iceland in a privileged club, is currently in short supply. Nordic troubles suddenly seem to mirror those of other European countries, albeit with somewhat less dramatic features.

瑞典’s Go-It-Alone Approach

目前的目前的大部分状态可以在Covid危机开始时与瑞典的独立方法进行解释。

虽然邻国对其公民,斯德哥尔摩实施了一堆限制避免硬锁定赞成自我约束和畜群免疫力。瑞典试图在去年春天的大流行的第一阶段屏蔽其经济,但最终不得不反转课程,当时它明确表示对健康和财富的负面影响远远超过了Laissez-Faire方法的福利,它已经接受了这一点观点。

At the end of last year, the Swedish government expected the economy to shrink by 2.9% in 2020. However, it has admitted that its labor market performed worse during the initial phase of the COVID emergency when the economy remained open. In fact, among the Nordics in 2020, only Denmark fared marginally worse than Sweden, Norway and Finland, in part because its restrictions had been tighter.

根据统计丹麦的初步数据,丹麦的GDP在2020年第四季度增加了2020年第四季度的0.6%,而2019年,据丹麦统计数据为2019年,截至2019年的经济总体减少了3.7%。

最近的研究suggest that the impact on the labor market was similar in all Nordic countries, with Sweden only doing marginally better.

Nordic Economies Have Weathered the Storm Better Than Southern Europe

总体而言,北欧国家比旅游和休闲依赖经济体更好,如希腊,西班牙或葡萄牙。对于整个欧洲地区,观察到的收缩为6.8%,如欧洲统计局的初步阅读中所概述。在北欧,只有芬兰是欧元货币联盟的一部分。瑞典和丹麦是欧盟的成员,而挪威和冰岛则不是。

瑞典已经转移了它的立场,最近引入了更严格的强制性措施,包括关闭企业的可能性。卫生部长Lena Hallengren明确说,单独的店铺和购物中心 - 大流行法可能不足以抑制病毒,如果疫苗接种计划正在进行疫苗接种计划。

Notably, the amended pandemic law gives the government power to implement a wide range of measures to curb the spread of the virus, should it become necessary.

进一步展望未来,所有的北欧国家,the exception of Norway, are well-placed to manage the transition to a green and digital economy and are already at the forefront of those efforts.

未能保护老年人

该立法是由于公众反对对病毒之前的宽松态度的冠状病毒委员会对Coronavirus委员会的治疗报告的政治反应。188bet投注网站

The commission’s findings were published in mid-December and spared no one. Government, public health agencies, regions and municipalities all came under fire. The conclusion of the report: Sweden utterly failed to protect its elderly. The country became a cautionary tale in the fight against the virus.

Since then, travel restrictions were imposed, not only for non-EU travelers, such as U.K. citizens, but also for neighboring Danes and Norwegians. Sweden’s death toll since then has surpassed the 13,000 mark in a country with a population of 10.23 million. That puts its deaths per capita rate close to that of France, which lost more than 90,000 people to the pandemic. Denmark’s death toll is close to 2,400, with a noticeably lower death per capita ratio than its bigger neighbor to the north.

政治信任是磨损的

随着欧洲的任何地方的疫苗接种速度,包括北欧,现在的问题是,一旦目前的限制被提升,可能是在夏天的情况下,该地区如何做。

Politically, mutual trust is in need of repair, given the fragmented response and less than ideal coordination between countries. The notion of coherent sub-blocs within the European Union acting in a coordinated manner — in this case, with some outsiders, namely Norway and Iceland — needs to be looked at.

Also, the notion that Nordic citizens, particularly Swedes, would behave more responsibly than others was hit badly by the crisis, forcing governments to abandon “guidance” and enforce similarly strict measures.

经济上,图片是罗西尔

Firstly, the hit taken was far smaller than in the rest of Europe. Last summer, all Nordic economies bounced back strongly: There is no reason to believe that this time it will be different.

Looking further ahead, all countries, with the exception, perhaps, of Norway because of its dependency on fossil fuel extraction, are well-placed to manage the transition to a green and digital economy and are already at the forefront of those efforts.

在社会上,尽管Covid挑战,但所有国家似乎都很精心地掌握缓冲成本。

For European political dynamics, the question now is how quickly and far will Nordics race ahead of the rest of Europe? For a continent in need of convergence rather than further divergence, the answer is relevant.

如果瑞典示例提供课程,则当面对对称的冲击时,例如Covid,最好的响应是密切地与他人协调,即使诱惑越过略微优势复杂。

Alexander Privitera

Head of European Affairs at Commerzbank AG and BRINK Columnist

Alexander Privitera在华盛顿的智库AICGS,约翰霍普金斯大学是非居民。他还在Commerzbank AG的欧洲事务负责人。

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