这将对各国的相对权力相对权力产生影响 - 其中一个可能因气候变化而获得的国家之一是俄罗斯。随着地球温暖的，西伯利亚的巨大地区开始开辟农业和粮食生产。
SCHOONOVER: As temperatures go up both globally and regionally, what you’re seeing is a northerly shift in crop production zones in the Northern Hemisphere. Regions in Canada, the United States and especially in Russia that were once deemed non-productive for agriculture are becoming productive.
SCHOONOVER: There are a number of global trends affecting food security. One of those has to do with the world population, which is expected to hit about 10 billion people around 2050.
And then you have this shift of production poleward. So for example, corn is now being grown in North Dakota, and that comes at the expense of some of the more southerly production zones in the United States. In other parts of the world, like Europe, you may see a production zone moving completely out of a nation over time into another nation.
SCHOONOVER: The agricultural sector in Russia suffered a terrible drought in 2010. Since then, the Russian government has really started to map out self-sufficiency in the food space. They have a plan to become an agricultural superpower for wheat, sugar beet, livestock and some other cereals.
克里姆林宫明白,他们需要建立一个economy for the 21st century. I would say that they are taking less advantage of climate change that’s happening on the ground now and building towards taking advantage of it in the near future.
如果你去过西伯利亚，这只是这种在很大程度上冻结的土地，没有大量的基础设施。There are some other things that would need to be put into place to take full advantage of climate change effects, but if you pay attention to their food policies and what they’re doing, then they are clearly telegraphing that they intend to be a beneficiary of shifting food patterns that are coming about, at least partially, because of climate change.
The Decline of Oil As a Geopolitical Risk
边缘：More broadly, does this mean that we’re going to shift away from a geopolitics of oil towards seeing food as a critical resource?
SCHOONOVER: I wouldn’t expect it to be as fast a transition as some other people think — it seems like we’re holding onto fossil fuels much longer than it seems wise to. I do think historians between 2050 and 2060 will probably make the judgment that there was some kind of transition in our current period to a different set of critical national resources.
SCHOONOVER: That depends on how they adapt to these global shifts, and the degree to which they continue to depend on oil and gas. There’re a handful of countries who are quite wealthy. What do they do with that wealth? Do they invest it further into different types of renewable energy or desalination or things like that? Or do they just try to keep the oil pumps going?