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关于全球经济的企业风险与恢复力的新思考。
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俄罗斯如何从气候变化中受益

不断变化的气候开始影响地缘政治风险。随着世界远离碳经济的迁移,石油和天然气的重要性可能会减少,而粮食安全问题变得越来越重要。

这将对各国的相对权力相对权力产生影响 - 其中一个可能因气候变化而获得的国家之一是俄罗斯。随着地球温暖的,西伯利亚的巨大地区开始开辟农业和粮食生产。

Brink与Rod Schoonover,美国奥巴马总统和特朗普国家情报委员会的环境和自然资源主任。188bet滚球投注

SCHOONOVER: As temperatures go up both globally and regionally, what you’re seeing is a northerly shift in crop production zones in the Northern Hemisphere. Regions in Canada, the United States and especially in Russia that were once deemed non-productive for agriculture are becoming productive.

西伯利亚正在开放农业

有一些开放的问题仍然有关二氧化碳施肥及其对作物产量的影响,但毫无疑问,我们看到植物世界中的杆子的转变。例如,在俄罗斯,您可以期待西伯利亚的整个Swaths和苔原的其他部分变得更加有利。

我不想把它全部放到气氛中,因为在农业收益率方面也有技术改进,但俄罗斯人非常了解气候变化效应。他们在全国内没有强烈的气候否认行业,气候变化很好地嵌入到他们的农业野心中。

边缘:气候变化如何影响粮食安全或不安全感,更普遍?

SCHOONOVER: There are a number of global trends affecting food security. One of those has to do with the world population, which is expected to hit about 10 billion people around 2050.

过去50年来我们所做的伟大事物之一就是让人们摆脱极端贫困,但这最终会改变他们的饮食。因此,您有更多的人远离肉类和更多的水和土地密集的水果和蔬菜。即使没有气候变化,这也将对全球食品系统进行压力。

俄罗斯了解他们需要通过较少的气候变化的优势来建立21世纪的经济,现在正在发生在不久的将来利用它。

气候变化对俄罗斯农业的影响

And then you have this shift of production poleward. So for example, corn is now being grown in North Dakota, and that comes at the expense of some of the more southerly production zones in the United States. In other parts of the world, like Europe, you may see a production zone moving completely out of a nation over time into another nation.

边缘:在俄罗斯方面,这对他们的地理位派发挥了如何?188手机网址

SCHOONOVER: The agricultural sector in Russia suffered a terrible drought in 2010. Since then, the Russian government has really started to map out self-sufficiency in the food space. They have a plan to become an agricultural superpower for wheat, sugar beet, livestock and some other cereals.

克里姆林宫明白,他们需要建立一个economy for the 21st century. I would say that they are taking less advantage of climate change that’s happening on the ground now and building towards taking advantage of it in the near future.

如果你去过西伯利亚,这只是这种在很大程度上冻结的土地,没有大量的基础设施。There are some other things that would need to be put into place to take full advantage of climate change effects, but if you pay attention to their food policies and what they’re doing, then they are clearly telegraphing that they intend to be a beneficiary of shifting food patterns that are coming about, at least partially, because of climate change.

The Decline of Oil As a Geopolitical Risk

边缘:More broadly, does this mean that we’re going to shift away from a geopolitics of oil towards seeing food as a critical resource?

SCHOONOVER: I wouldn’t expect it to be as fast a transition as some other people think — it seems like we’re holding onto fossil fuels much longer than it seems wise to. I do think historians between 2050 and 2060 will probably make the judgment that there was some kind of transition in our current period to a different set of critical national resources.

边缘:这是否意味着中东变得不太重要?

SCHOONOVER: That depends on how they adapt to these global shifts, and the degree to which they continue to depend on oil and gas. There’re a handful of countries who are quite wealthy. What do they do with that wealth? Do they invest it further into different types of renewable energy or desalination or things like that? Or do they just try to keep the oil pumps going?

当你看看委内瑞拉的故事,有一些经验教训,以依赖于失控的资源来了解。

Rod Schoonover

生态期货集团首席执行官 @RodSchoonover

rod schoonover是首席执行官Ecological Futures Group. He is also the former director of environment and natural resources and the director of global health at the National Intelligence Council. Schoonover was also a senior scientist in the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.

    边缘的日常通讯提供关于企业风险和弹性的新思路。 订阅