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这是通货膨胀升起的原因 - 以及你能期待的原因

2021年第一季度带来了通货膨胀 - 或者至少对它的恐惧 - 恢复到焦点。通胀预期在全球范围内升高,这一趋势始于11月2020年11月在Covid-19疫苗上的好消息之后。这提醒投资者更广泛的可能性inflation outcomes以及对他们的投资组合的潜在影响。

自年初以来,Breakeven通货膨胀率对美国,U.K.,澳大利亚和欧洲大陆一直在增加。As of mid-March 2021, 10-year U.S., U.K. and Australian breakevens have increased by 32, 47 and 38 basis points, respectively, over the last year, and breakevens for major eurozone economies (Germany and Italy) have increased by 36 and 39 basis points, respectively.

2021年2月对美国的通货膨胀特别有趣。虽然10年的盈亏平衡率大多是平坦的,但五年的飙升20个基点,升至10年高。换句话说,虽然市场略微较长时间(10年)略微低于联邦开放式市场委员会targetfor the medium term (five years), implied inflation is edging closer to the target — closer than it has been since prior to the Global Financial Crisis. For other countries, we have seen similar moves in February but less pronounced than for the U.S.What are markets trying to tell us?

图1.美国Breakeven通货膨胀截至3月16日,2021年3月16日

来源:彭博

预期浮雕需求

去年,当世界各地的经济关闭一夜之间时,我们进入了一个消极的排气,并且在某些情况下,彻头彻尾的放气环境,因为在家里陷入困境的人。188bet滚球投注在初始休克后的商品消费拾取,但服务消费继续落后。实际通胀只在夏天逐渐恢复,并在秋季返回的限制再次放缓。

今年,市场预计轨迹也是如此。

超过一年,我们大多数人都无法追求休闲活动,因为有流行性相关的限制。At the same time and unlike in past recessions, the fall in household incomes in many countries was actually mitigated via income-support programs that allowed affected (and unaffected) households to get by and, in the case of the U.S., to actually pay down debt and build up savings.

图2.美国真正的个人收入

资料来源:美国经济研究局经济分析局。

金融火力准备好被家庭部署的金融火力和渴望再次享受社交,旅行和亲自娱乐的组合,预计将释放一股浮雕需求,从二战结束以来我们没有看到。服务提供商将比敏锐的人更加热衷于容纳,但在一夜之间回报将具有挑战性,至少在短期内。因此,短期需求超出供应可能反映在某些部门的价格上,因此,至少有2021年的通货膨胀率较高。

On the other hand, the large output gap (i.e., potential GDP growth less actual growth) is still significant in some regions, such as the eurozone, so unemployment numbers are expected to act as a dampener on the transitory jump in prices.

通货膨胀因区域和恢复状态而不同

恢复的步伐将受到国家的差异,因为它取决于疫苗推出和完全重新开放的相关能力。This is what markets have been pricing in the last month — a sharp increase in medium-term inflation expectations in the U.S. and U.K. and no increase in the eurozone, as the slow rollout of the vaccine by the EU will defer a full reopening driven rebound for now.

For the U.S., the pending stimulus is an additional elephant in the room. It was no coincidence that the rally in five-year U.S. inflation expectations coincided with the third U.S. fiscal stimulus package of $1.9 trillion (around 9% of GDP) clearing its final hurdles. Many fear that such a large package will only add fuel to the fire as it will coincide with a massive recovery. In the U.K., the budget released in early March includes another stimulus package of $90 billion (around 3% of GDP). Although the EU stimulus of $2.2 trillion (around 12% of GDP) is also sizable, it will only be disbursed gradually, starting this year, with more targeted measures than blank checks to consumers. Inflation markets at the shorter end of the curve have, therefore, reacted most sharply to the latest U.S. stimulus package.

A Different Approach From Central Banks

最后,在货币方面,经济恢复y and expected inflationary pressure would normally lead to a tightening in monetary policy. However, this recovery is different, with central banks erring on the side of caution, potentially allowing inflation to overshoot targets rather than nip any recovery in the bud. Indeed, the whole idea of inflation targets has begun to morph, with the Federal Reserve joining the Reserve Bank of Australia in using an average inflation-targeting framework.The European Central Bank is also considering an average inflation target as it reviews its monetary policy framework this year.

我们从这里开始的地方最终将依赖实际通货膨胀以及中央银行如何回应。如果通货膨胀过度,美联储开始收紧,通货膨胀期望可能再次退缩并稳定。但是,如果允许通货膨胀率跑热卖市场认为这是新的正常,我们可以看到通胀预期再次恢复并留在那里。

Inflation Outlook and Potential Surprises

We have been recommending since last year that investors prepare for a wider range of inflation outcomes for the decade to come, including the risk of inflation surprises.

For 2021, we expect a material pick-up in inflation, partly because of the base effects — when we compare prices this spring to last spring when economic activity was paralyzed, there will naturally be a- 但也是因为需求压缩,大小取决于每个国家的重新开放时间表。此后,我们预计从2022上向前稳定。

超出这一点,我们可能会看到央行更接受更高的通货膨胀和较少独立于政府的情况。此外,政府借款狂欢的后果可能会导致政治家才能通过将央行人民筹集进入更高的通货膨胀,使政治家们旨在减少实际赤字。最后,鉴于政治极化提高,贸易壁垒增加,制定全球化和再利用人口的风险,作为结构通胀司机仍然存在。

请参见Important Notices与本文有关。

基督徒von canstein

Mercer投资研究专家

Christian Von Canstein是Mercer的投资研究专家,拥有8年的研究和机构投资咨询经验。

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