这是通货膨胀升起的原因 - 以及你能期待的原因
2021年第一季度带来了通货膨胀 - 或者至少对它的恐惧 - 恢复到焦点。通胀预期在全球范围内升高，这一趋势始于11月2020年11月在Covid-19疫苗上的好消息之后。这提醒投资者更广泛的可能性inflation outcomes以及对他们的投资组合的潜在影响。
自年初以来，Breakeven通货膨胀率对美国，U.K.，澳大利亚和欧洲大陆一直在增加。As of mid-March 2021, 10-year U.S., U.K. and Australian breakevens have increased by 32, 47 and 38 basis points, respectively, over the last year, and breakevens for major eurozone economies (Germany and Italy) have increased by 36 and 39 basis points, respectively.
2021年2月对美国的通货膨胀特别有趣。虽然10年的盈亏平衡率大多是平坦的，但五年的飙升20个基点，升至10年高。换句话说，虽然市场略微较长时间（10年）略微低于联邦开放式市场委员会target那for the medium term (five years), implied inflation is edging closer to the target — closer than it has been since prior to the Global Financial Crisis. For other countries, we have seen similar moves in February but less pronounced than for the U.S.What are markets trying to tell us?
超过一年，我们大多数人都无法追求休闲活动，因为有流行性相关的限制。At the same time and unlike in past recessions, the fall in household incomes in many countries was actually mitigated via income-support programs that allowed affected (and unaffected) households to get by and, in the case of the U.S., to actually pay down debt and build up savings.
On the other hand, the large output gap (i.e., potential GDP growth less actual growth) is still significant in some regions, such as the eurozone, so unemployment numbers are expected to act as a dampener on the transitory jump in prices.
恢复的步伐将受到国家的差异，因为它取决于疫苗推出和完全重新开放的相关能力。This is what markets have been pricing in the last month — a sharp increase in medium-term inflation expectations in the U.S. and U.K. and no increase in the eurozone, as the slow rollout of the vaccine by the EU will defer a full reopening driven rebound for now.
For the U.S., the pending stimulus is an additional elephant in the room. It was no coincidence that the rally in five-year U.S. inflation expectations coincided with the third U.S. fiscal stimulus package of $1.9 trillion (around 9% of GDP) clearing its final hurdles. Many fear that such a large package will only add fuel to the fire as it will coincide with a massive recovery. In the U.K., the budget released in early March includes another stimulus package of $90 billion (around 3% of GDP). Although the EU stimulus of $2.2 trillion (around 12% of GDP) is also sizable, it will only be disbursed gradually, starting this year, with more targeted measures than blank checks to consumers. Inflation markets at the shorter end of the curve have, therefore, reacted most sharply to the latest U.S. stimulus package.
A Different Approach From Central Banks
最后,在货币方面,经济恢复y and expected inflationary pressure would normally lead to a tightening in monetary policy. However, this recovery is different, with central banks erring on the side of caution, potentially allowing inflation to overshoot targets rather than nip any recovery in the bud. Indeed, the whole idea of inflation targets has begun to morph, with the Federal Reserve joining the Reserve Bank of Australia in using an average inflation-targeting framework.The European Central Bank is also considering an average inflation target as it reviews its monetary policy framework this year.
Inflation Outlook and Potential Surprises
We have been recommending since last year that investors prepare for a wider range of inflation outcomes for the decade to come, including the risk of inflation surprises.
For 2021, we expect a material pick-up in inflation, partly because of the base effects — when we compare prices this spring to last spring when economic activity was paralyzed, there will naturally be a跳- 但也是因为需求压缩，大小取决于每个国家的重新开放时间表。此后，我们预计从2022上向前稳定。