尼克里德, who led the original U.K. self-driving trials, described to BRINK the current state of development.
芦苇：五年前，有很多炒作，这是一个很快即将到来的东西，并且将成为许多人的一部分 - 在西方世界，至少在几年内。但人们低估了在不可预测和无限的可变环境中运行全自动，安全关键系统的挑战的规模。188bet滚球投注
Being able to build a vehicle that can work in some environments, in some weather conditions, when the winds are favorable as it were, is very achievable. But getting it to work every time, when there is infinite variability, is a much greater challenge.
BRINK:The CEO of Waymo said recently that it’s a bigger challenge than sending a rocket into space — is it really harder to put a driverless car on a road than a rocket into space?
这种可靠性，可预测性和安全性是技术公司的重要挑战。Waymo的首席执行官John Krafcik described it as an extraordinary grind，让这些系统工作。这反映了处理驾驶复杂性的挑战的规模，这是五年前受到欠低的。
REED: The environment in which you expect the automated vehicle to operate is what’s called the operational design domain. This includes the routes, the environmental conditions and the traffic conditions that the automated vehicle is expected to encounter.
Once you don’t have to think about accommodating a driver, you’ve got many different types of vehicles and business models that can emerge.
So if you want to say, “we don’t just want to operate in city A, but now expand to cities B, C and D,” you need to understand everything about where the traffic lights are, where vehicles park, where the turning lanes are and all these different aspects of those new environments. That’s why it’s so difficult to just have one operating system that works everywhere.
BRINK:What’s likely to be the first application of this technology in the U.K.?
REED: There is an evolutionary path and a revolutionary path. The evolutionary path builds on existing driver assistance systems — for example, adaptive cruise control, lane guidance — to the point where the vehicle manufacturer is taking responsibility for the safe control of the vehicle for extended periods of time. I can see that happening in the next two to three years on highways. If there were a collision, it would be the manufacturer that was responsible, subject to the exact conditions of the collision.
The revolutionary path is when you have vehicles that don’t have any driver within them, where you have robotaxis and automated shuttles. The sorts of things that Waymo and Amazon/Zoox are doing. I envisage a step-wise process gradually expanding the operational design domain of their vehicles, as they build more evidence around the capabilities of their vehicles.
Transforming Car Insurance
REED: When this field was opening up, I think there was a lot of nervousness from the insurers; that there would be many fewer collisions and they would all be fighting for larger segments of a smaller pie.
That’s gone away, to an extent. They realize that insurance will remain a necessary enabler to the deployment of automation. My intuition is that in the early stages of automation deployment, premiums will remain broadly similar to those we see today. But once the evidence builds up about the relative safety of automated driving, they can start to adjust their models and price in the improvements in safety that we believe automation can bring.
Solving 99% of Journeys for 99% of the People
BRINK:Do you think that the puzzle you outlined, of being able to replicate driverless cars in any weather, any traffic or terrain, will ever be solved?
里德:我是否会完全解决’m not sure. I mean, maybe in 50 years, 100 years’ time. But if you can solve 99% of journeys for 99% of people, that’s a much more achievable task. Then you’ve got an incredibly powerful business case and safety case, frankly, for doing it.
一旦我们证明自动车辆是安全的，将有一个盛开的操作系统生态系统。Once you don’t have to think about accommodating a driver, you’ve got many different types of vehicles and business models that can emerge, such as pavement-dwelling robots delivering groceries, or road-going vehicles delivering packages or automated trucks doing hub-to-hub transport of containers.