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有车轮从无人驾驶汽车革命中脱颖而出吗?

五年前,优步预测,到2020年,这条路上有200,000辆无人驾驶汽车。但迄今为止,迄今为止,无人驾驶汽车尚未到达。那发生了什么事?过去五年已经看到了百ks,周围的现象慢慢消散,因为行业击中了一些坚硬的技术挑战。

尼克里德, who led the original U.K. self-driving trials, described to BRINK the current state of development.

芦苇:五年前,有很多炒作,这是一个很快即将到来的东西,并且将成为许多人的一部分 - 在西方世界,至少在几年内。但人们低估了在不可预测和无限的可变环境中运行全自动,安全关键系统的挑战的规模。188bet滚球投注

Being able to build a vehicle that can work in some environments, in some weather conditions, when the winds are favorable as it were, is very achievable. But getting it to work every time, when there is infinite variability, is a much greater challenge.

比去月球更难?

BRINK:The CEO of Waymo said recently that it’s a bigger challenge than sending a rocket into space — is it really harder to put a driverless car on a road than a rocket into space?

芦苇:嗯,有数十亿美元的人把数十亿美元送到月球,并这样做六次。自动化车辆是一个消费者的命题,以及每天录取数百万人的东西。

这种可靠性,可预测性和安全性是技术公司的重要挑战。Waymo的首席执行官John Krafcik described it as an extraordinary grind,让这些系统工作。这反映了处理驾驶复杂性的挑战的规模,这是五年前受到欠低的。

BRINK:Waymo正在与凤凰城的无人驾驶汽车运行运营出租车服务。如果在一个城市是可行的,可以在其他地方复制吗?

REED: The environment in which you expect the automated vehicle to operate is what’s called the operational design domain. This includes the routes, the environmental conditions and the traffic conditions that the automated vehicle is expected to encounter.

Once you don’t have to think about accommodating a driver, you’ve got many different types of vehicles and business models that can emerge.

So if you want to say, “we don’t just want to operate in city A, but now expand to cities B, C and D,” you need to understand everything about where the traffic lights are, where vehicles park, where the turning lanes are and all these different aspects of those new environments. That’s why it’s so difficult to just have one operating system that works everywhere.

BRINK:What’s likely to be the first application of this technology in the U.K.?

REED: There is an evolutionary path and a revolutionary path. The evolutionary path builds on existing driver assistance systems — for example, adaptive cruise control, lane guidance — to the point where the vehicle manufacturer is taking responsibility for the safe control of the vehicle for extended periods of time. I can see that happening in the next two to three years on highways. If there were a collision, it would be the manufacturer that was responsible, subject to the exact conditions of the collision.

The revolutionary path is when you have vehicles that don’t have any driver within them, where you have robotaxis and automated shuttles. The sorts of things that Waymo and Amazon/Zoox are doing. I envisage a step-wise process gradually expanding the operational design domain of their vehicles, as they build more evidence around the capabilities of their vehicles.

Transforming Car Insurance

BRINK:您是否看到愿意保证那些车辆的保险公司?

REED: When this field was opening up, I think there was a lot of nervousness from the insurers; that there would be many fewer collisions and they would all be fighting for larger segments of a smaller pie.

That’s gone away, to an extent. They realize that insurance will remain a necessary enabler to the deployment of automation. My intuition is that in the early stages of automation deployment, premiums will remain broadly similar to those we see today. But once the evidence builds up about the relative safety of automated driving, they can start to adjust their models and price in the improvements in safety that we believe automation can bring.

根据自动化车辆运行的商业模式,可能存在更大的变化。如果我不再拥有汽车,但根据需要召唤自动化车辆,保险将通过运营商而不是拥有单独的机动车辆政策。因此,虽然保险模式可能存在有趣的变化,但仍然存在将该封面的重要性仍然存在。

Solving 99% of Journeys for 99% of the People

BRINK:Do you think that the puzzle you outlined, of being able to replicate driverless cars in any weather, any traffic or terrain, will ever be solved?

里德:我是否会完全解决’m not sure. I mean, maybe in 50 years, 100 years’ time. But if you can solve 99% of journeys for 99% of people, that’s a much more achievable task. Then you’ve got an incredibly powerful business case and safety case, frankly, for doing it.

一旦我们证明自动车辆是安全的,将有一个盛开的操作系统生态系统。Once you don’t have to think about accommodating a driver, you’ve got many different types of vehicles and business models that can emerge, such as pavement-dwelling robots delivering groceries, or road-going vehicles delivering packages or automated trucks doing hub-to-hub transport of containers.

在大多数情况下,就像今天的汽车一样,很多笔杆技术可能来自少数提供者。将有很多融合可能由要求所需的安全性能水平的法规驱动。

尼克里德

Founder of Reed Mobility @reedmobility

尼克瑞德是创始人芦苇流动性, an independent consultancy working at the forefront of future transport. Nick led mobility research at TRL (the U.K.’s Transport Research Laboratory) and Bosch, and has extensively researched driver behavior and the contribution that automated vehicles might play in improving road transport.

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