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Economy

Europe’s Two-Speed Recovery

甚至欧洲终于进入了大流行的家园。疫苗接种正在获得速度,并且存在重大反弹的早期迹象。制造订单现在已经拿起了一段时间,在亚洲和美国的强烈需求驱动,即使在服务业,事情终于改善了。然而,并非一切都很好。

一段时间已经清楚了,欧盟国家的康复不会以同步的方式进行。例如,德国经济活动将在明年达到危机前水平,而意大利则必须等到2023年。在锁定后的第一个亲自会议上,欧盟财长最近听取了另一份吸引力,不要让他们的警卫。

作为基于布鲁塞尔的智库Bruegel在它的情况下明确了comprehensive list of priorities对于政策制定者来说,“政策制定者必须采取行动,以防止欧盟内部的持久性分歧,并防止从大流行中的出现疤痕。第一个优先事项正在解决全球健康的紧急情况。其次,我们警告过早的财政收紧,并推荐国家预算的额外短期支持。“

So Far So Good

So far the policy response has been pretty impressive. Despite lockdowns, the expected deterioration of the quality of assets on European banks’ balance sheets has not yet materialized. Supported by various public and private support measures, borrowers have largely continued to service their debts.

非执行贷款的预期浪潮尚未实施。银行终于对贷款变得更加谨慎,但现在信贷继续流动。鉴于欧洲经济对银行资金的依赖,这是政策制定者关注的主要领域之一。这大陆负担不起不良贷款(NPLS)引起的信贷危机。金融部门也是一个令人震惊的支持和审慎之间的适当平衡,这是非常困难的,欧洲央行似乎对银行的不良数字似乎表明的引力态度持怀疑态度。

The Risk of Zombification

Given the impact of COVID in particular on some sectors of the economy, such as travel and leisure, many borrowers are expected to be in distress once support measures are lifted. The fear of policymakers is that if they are lifted too early, firms and households won’t have enough time to repair their balance sheets.

Despite rising public debt levels everywhere in Europe, some countries are faring much better than others — will European governments have the strategic patience to grant countries ample time to get back on track?

If support is granted for too long, however, non-viable companies will be kept alive artificially, creating a zombification of large swathes of the economy. That would weaken banks and impair the ability to support those activities that have a better chance to grow and create new jobs.

然而,试图与不可行的企业分开可行的不可行,并非最不重要,因为由于所需的绿化和经济的数字化,评估“可行性”是更难评估的。一些支持的支持European Recovery Fundis specifically linked to accelerating the structural transition of European economies. Once funds start getting disbursed, expect to see some interesting discussions between European capitals and the European Commission.

对于欧洲人在过去15个月的最黑暗的时间内替换恢复时,欧洲人试图维持它在过去的最黑暗的时间内显示的团结精神至关重要。我们已经目睹了财政老鹰队和街道,北部和南部的通常欧洲辩论的超时,但一旦康复所获得的牵引力,特别是在不同国家的不同速度下,这些辩论可能会卷土重来。

德国鹰派将在看

如果通货膨胀上涨,欧洲中央银行的理事会的德国LED老鹰队预计将呼吁结束非凡的货币政策支持。担心所谓的财政统治地位可能是合理的,但也许鉴于击中其通胀目标的货币政策的恒星记录少,大规模的财政支持是缺失的腿。

问题在于,尽管pu上升blic debt levels everywhere in Europe, some countries are faring much better than others. To put it simply, countries with high public debt levels have seen their debt-to-GDP ratio grow much more than those who came into the crisis with solid finances.

Only a combination of growth and some inflation would be able to reduce the debt burden over time. The big question is whether European governments will have the strategic patience to grant countries ample time to get back on track. Much will depend on public opinion in individual EU member nations.

How much is the public in stronger countries like Germany willing to stomach if the recovery in weaker ones proves to be uneven and fragile? The answer to this question will tell us whether Europe has really learned from past mistakes.

Alexander Privitera

Head of European Affairs at Commerzbank AG and BRINK Columnist

Alexander Privitera在华盛顿的智库AICGS,约翰霍普金斯大学是非居民。他还在Commerzbank AG的欧洲事务负责人。

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