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经济

Cash Indicators Show Reassuring Signs of Recovery

我们现在已经过了一年的冠状病毒大流行,并收集了过去的两季度金融专业人士(188bet投注网站AFP)的两季度Corporate Cash Indicators®(CCI)为我们提供对经济复苏的保证,尽管持谨慎乐观。

自2011年以来录制的最高读数

AFP于2011年开始收集上美国现金和短期投资持有的数据。在2020年的第四季度,四分之一季度指数读数增加了20分至+39,这是记录的最高读数。它也比2019年的这个时间高的八分。

While organizations had previously anticipated being forced to draw down on cash reserves in the last quarter of the year, these readings suggest they were able to avoid depleting their cash holdings and were instead able to focus on accumulating cash.

In fact, 56% of the 99 survey respondents in the January 2021 CCI, underwritten by Wells Fargo Asset Management, held larger cash and short-term investment balances at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 than they did at the end of the previous quarter, while 17% reduced cash holdings over the past three months, the latter reported as primarily due to poor business performance.

Cash Accumulation At Slower Pace in First Quarter of 2021

美国企业在2021年第一季度累计现金和短期投资持有的速度明显低于上一季度,减少33点至+6。这表明对某些的性能提高,而其他人则保障未来的不确定性。

Nearly 60% of organizations that increased their cash holdings in the first quarter of 2021 did so due to improved business performance. Other reasons for accumulating cash were federal funding received, such as the Payroll Protection Program, and building reserves as a defensive measure to safeguard against uncertainty. While almost 50% of respondents reported a decrease in cash holdings due to poor business performance, it was encouraging that some were deploying cash to invest in their organizations.

As the economy inches toward recovery, these next six months will be telling, but what we do know that remains certain is uncertainty.

The +6 difference was down 33 points from the previous quarter and down 18 points from a year ago. The year-over-year indicator decreased by eight points, from +29 to +21, indicating that the pace of cash accumulation was lower than it was in the first quarter of 2020.

尽管有信号,但现金储备并未被绘制

As the calendar flipped to a new year, financial professionals signaled they were planning to draw down on their cash reserves. While that did not happen, results suggest they accrued holdings to a lesser extent than in preceding quarters.

在2021年的第一季度末,43%的组织比上一年的现金和短期投资平衡持有更高的现金和短期投资平衡,而22%的现金余额持有较小的现金余额。+21的差异比前一季度的读数低八点,比4月20日读数低11分。

Expectations Are Cash Will Build At a Slow Pace

超过四分之三的公司由于商业绩效的改善而导致第二季度增加现金持股 - 但以低利率为例。计划部署其现金的三分之一公司正在投资其组织,这是国库和金融专业人员倾向于更积极的前景,因为他们的公司逐渐从冠状病毒大流行的影响中恢复。188bet投注网站不幸的是,有许多其他企业继续受到绩效恶化的挑战,迫使他们将现金部署到仍然可行。

Regarding short-term investments, 13% of organizations were more conservative in the first quarter of 2021, while 8% were more aggressive. The -5 reading is equal to last quarter and is 18 points higher than a year ago.

跨越恢复

Not only is there an uptick in the performance of these companies, but some are also reporting they are in a position to invest in their organizations. A more positive outlook is being fostered by the success of the vaccine rollout in the U.S. and the promise of a new administration. The generous infrastructure bill is encouraging to business leaders, though we will have to wait to see whether the proposed increase in the corporate tax rate serves as a deterrent to investment and growth.

未来六个月将会讲述。随着经济的康复,唯一仍然肯定的是不确定性。

詹姆斯A. Kaitz.

财务专业人士协会总裁兼首席执行官 @JKaitzAFP

Jim Kaitz is president and CEO ofAFP是代表世界各地的16,000多名财政专业人士的协会。他曾任金融高管研究所的副总裁兼首席运营官,这是一个超过14,000多名高级财政高管的专业协会,代表美国8,000家公司。

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