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Brazil and Argentina — Polar Opposites on the Coronavirus, with Far-Reaching Consequences

Latin American Correspondent for Folha de S.Paulo

通常,当有一个普遍的敌人威胁到两个竞争对手的政治力量时,差异很容易抛弃,以面对更迫切和危险的对手。通常。

但这并不是在巴西和阿根廷之间发生的事情,因为Covid-19抵达这些国家。两者都是足球中的历史和激烈的竞争对手。但是,除此之外,他们是许多其他领域的强大合作伙伴。南美洲的两个最大经济体也有该地区领导的传统。

两个不同的道路

Unfortunately, this is not the situation right now.

巴西和阿根廷过去几个月没有在同一条线上。自从2019年阿根廷的选举活动以来,巴西总统jair bolsonaro公开了批评Kirchnerismo是去年11月赢得了总统职位的Peronist部分。

Bolsonaro总统表示,如果阿根廷总统AlbertoFernández总裁,以及他的副总裁克里斯蒂纳Kirchner,胜利,阿根廷将采取“新委内瑞拉”的道路。Bolsonaro总统给了这么多支持然后,莫里奇奥·麦克里(Mauricio Macri)甚至损坏了宏基总统自己的机会。前总统宏基是一个中心正确的政治家,甚至他的追随者甚至不赞成他与极端右翼巴西总统的联盟。

On the other hand, when he was still a candidate, President Fernández said that it was an honor not to have the support of a politician like President Bolsonaro. After being elected, President Fernández softened his speech, saying that relations with Brazil would be based on a务实查看和忽略意识形态纠纷。

A Bitter Rivalry

但这根本不起作用。Bolsonaro总统没有来到Fernández的就职典礼。而且,从那时起,双边商业跌倒了,而且MERCOSUR,两国之间的联盟 - 加上乌拉圭和巴拉圭 - 被冻结。

两国之间缺乏同步变成了幼稚和平坦的竞争,其中他们无法展望未来,并考虑世界各地的未来,当时发生了这么多的变化。

所以我们有Covid-19的到来。每个领导人都采取了完全不同的方法,就如何对抗它 - 或者根本不打架。疾病使它们之间的差异更加明显。

Then Came COVID-19

In an ideal situation, the two neighboring countries would sit and talk rationally about challenges they have in common: how to manage border controls, how to spot the disease in airports, how to maintain surveillance on products that are exchanged by land, and the real daily life of the citizens of both countries, especially the ones who live along the 1,200 kilometer border.

没有那种发生。

费尔尼德州总统决定释放洪水政策designed to face the spread of the disease, just like many responsible countries in the world are doing. He said that “you can recover a dead economy, but not a dead person.”

与此同时,巴西总统选择成为病毒杀伤性的否定主义者。

他一直说Covid-19就像一个“小流感”,而且只有老或脆弱的人会死。“我不否认存在Covid-19的存在,人们将死。但这是生命的一部分,“他说。

He justifies this statement saying that measures like quarantine or lockdown would stop the economy, and that would cause, in his mind, much more damage to the country. Today, Brazil has thehighestnumber of infected and dead in consequence of COVID-19 in the region.

在巴西,Covid-19成为一个政治仇恨,这不仅可以让Bolsonaro总统的危险卷重,也是他留在办公室的能力。

Extreme Lockdown in Argentina

上周日,费尔尼德州总统决定延伸并使检疫仍然更严重。现在有超过6,000人面临司法试验,不尊重检疫。警方正在控制街道和许多公共交通的入口。边界由陆地,海洋和空气封闭。即使是巴西的边界也被关闭了。

In the Argentinian lockdown, everyone must stay home. People are allowed to go out only to buy basic goods, such as food and medicines. One can’t even walk their dog. The government included this in its decree. One can take the dog outside, but with the only purpose for them to do their needs. Walking with them is completely forbidden.

There are exceptions, of course. Health care professionals, people working in pharmaceutical, food and oil business can circulate. Journalists as well, but with a special permit issued by the authorities.

President Bolsonaro Fighting With His Cabinet

在巴西,Covid-19成为一个政治仇恨。

President Bolsonaro has not changed his mind. But there are members of his cabinet, representatives in the Congress, governors and even members of the Supreme Court who do not agree with the president. The health secretary, Henrique Mandetta, is in favor of more restrictive measures like quarantine and locking some sectors of economy. His job is at risk because of his disagreement with President Bolsonaro, but he has a lot of support from the Congress, and now from other powerful secretaries, such as Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes and Justice Minister Sérgio Moro.

曼德塔说,如果没有采取这些隔离措施,整个巴西卫生系统可能会崩溃。但是,在他的卫生部长后的一天说,Bolsonaro总统去了一个受欢迎的街道市场in Brasilia, doing all the opposite, taking selfies and hugging people, making it difficult to determine who the real voice of the government is.

来自Rio de Janeiro的SãoPaulo和Wilson Witzel还有两个州长Joãodoria从Rio de Janeiro采取行动,就像实施部分检疫并促进在非正式市场工作的人的社会赔偿。但是Bolsonaro总统对他们生气并试图让他们扭转这些决定。

他认为他们正在用选举目的来做这件事。实际上,博尔蒙罗总统,多洛西亚和Witzel有计划在2020年下次选举争夺。

费尔南德总统的受欢迎程度正在上升

For President Fernández, his quick response to the coronavirus challenge has been a political relief. He started in office with many economic challenges. Inflation is 55% per year, the country has a huge debt that corresponds to 97% of its GDP, poverty is around 40% and unemployment is 10%. And he did not seem to have a plan to reverse this situation.

人们选他,希望他有一个解决方案,但到现在为止,没有任何显著已经完成。Covid-19将注意力从阿根廷的经济形势中转向。虽然他管理of the health crisis is good for his image, there will be a moment in which the check will arrive.

为减轻病毒的影响,就像增加最低工资一样,在银行为老年人划出特殊时间来检索他们的养老金,以及为贫困家庭实施社会计划,除了用于老年人的新补贴,成本。阿根廷已经处于经济上岌岌可危的情况下。因此,在实施Covid-19特定的政策时,政府基本上是印刷的金钱。

When and if the pandemic ends, President Fernández will very likely have to face a worse recession than he had inherited and could be on the brink of hyperinflation. Unemployment is very likely to rise as well. If the quarantine takes too long, many employers will be forced to fire people.

Bolsonaro总统面临着不确定的未来

Things are not likely to be easier for President Bolsonaro. There is already a complaint being prepared by his opponents to be presented to the Hague Tribunal; part of the military is unhappy in their headquarters, and each and every night you can hear the sound of thepanelaço, a very South American way of protesting, when people make noise from the windows with their pans.

他不仅是他的危险,也是他留在办公室的能力。

西尔维亚科伦坡

Latin American Correspondent for Folha de S.Paulo @sylviacolombo.

Sylvia Colombo是一家拉丁美洲商人,位于布宜诺斯艾利斯的巴西报纸Folha de S.Paulo。在此之前,她是一个在伦敦的文化编辑和记者,密歇根大学的骑士 - 华莱士研究员。

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