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电池技术即将破坏美国电力部门

直到最近,美国在美国采用了电池电力存储解决方案。然而,降低成本和推进技术表明,电池储存准备在美国电力领域发挥更大作用。这种潜力现在吸引了重要的投资者兴趣,并从2024年开始,标准普尔全球评分预计北美电池仓库总投资每年超过30亿美元。

The Inflection Point Has Arrived

随着全球装机容量以25%的复合年度率增加,过去五年的电池储存增长一直很强劲。然而,在美国,发展已经缓慢。在2020年底,美国在储能 - 23 GW中有大约25千兆瓦的电力,其中泵送了水力发电。这与网格上的可再生能源最小。

在过去的五年中,美国已经安装了超过1 GW的电池储存,宾夕法尼亚队 - 泽西 - 马里陆互连和加州独立系统运营商区域的大部分增长。

Pre-pandemic project delays and uncertainty surrounding trade tensions with China were to blame for declining forecasts, and in the near term, we anticipate some uncertainty around the impact of the pandemic on economic measures. Despite this, S&P now expects annual deployments to accelerate from 2022, as battery storage in the U.S. approaches an inflection point.

途中电池储存的九倍增加

S&P Global Platts Analytics, an affiliate of S&P Global Ratings, expects advanced battery energy storage to drive an almost ninefold increase in the U.S. storage market in the period 2020-2023, with cumulative deployment approaching 10 GW by 2024, suggesting large-scale deployment is now imminent.

成长将由国家目标和飙升的任务部分刺激。事实上,由加州和纽约领导的七个州 - 现在将共计11 GW的电池部署到2036年。此外,互连队列中的电池项目的快速增加为地平线上的潜在增长浪涌提供了轶事证据,虽然不断下降的成本曲线和潜力收入堆叠,一个电池获得多次收入流的方式,将保持达到积极投资回报的关键。

燃气植物的经济上可行的替代品

In addition to financial impetus, the development of technology — notably the growth of storage solutions to economical peak-shifting four-hour applications — is playing an important role in increased deployment. Indeed, when used for providing peak capacity, batteries are well on their way to becoming an economically viable alternative.

In certain markets, including California and Hawaii, battery costs have declined sufficiently to compete with gas-fired peaking generation. In addition, a four-hour grid-level battery storage unit requires less maintenance: With no moving parts and no fuel, long-term operation costs are more stable and predictable.

虽然电池存储为许多业务创造了机会,但它对那些专注于传统一代的人来说也构成了威胁。

What’s more, battery banks are scalable, with the capacity for more units to be added without pronounced cost increases. Our estimates show that a utility-scale battery solution would currently cost between $1,250 and $1,300 per kW, comparable with the cost of building a gas-fired peaker plant in California. Utilities are increasingly recognizing the value of storage in integrated resource planning, particularly in the vertically integrated markets, suggesting that the provision of peaking capacity will be a major use for batteries.

A Game-Changer for Solar Power

鉴于电池存储能力解决太阳能发电中的间歇性问题,我们认为大规模,共同定位的太阳能加存储部署现在即将到来。

太阳能发电的主要问题是它是可中断的,随着电网同时增加了更多的太阳能设备,同时,日间可靠性问题得到了减轻的,因此剩余的可靠性挑战进入傍晚的时间。这自然减少了添加更多的太阳能厂的边际效果 - 除非电池存储系统能够将能量存储并在最需要的情况下将其送到网格中。

In the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), for instance, most battery projects are located in counties where major photovoltaic (PV) solar generation projects are expected. Indeed, co-located storage projects are increasing as capital costs continue to decline. Most projects co-located with solar PV installations have a battery capacity ranging from 50%-150% of the PV capacity, an indication that developers are seeking to contract with utilities for the provision of peaking capacity.

添加存储不仅提供了提供了公司的潜力,它可以从资格征收投资税收抵免(ITCS)具有有意义的高效。储存有效地加倍太阳能项目的资本成本,其中26%可以立即吸引ITC益处和可利用改进的加速成本回收系统折旧。

Together with declining PV solar installed capital costs, as well as lower operating and maintenance requirements, the falling cost of storage should result in a significant uptake in solar-plus storage in the coming years.

The Disruption Has Arrived

电池存储的摄取的增加将不可避免地对更广泛的电力扇区产生影响。凭借现有的基础设施,如Nextera Energy和Aes Corp.等公司可以从大量增长中受益于大量增长。

Of course, while storage creates opportunities for many businesses, it also poses a threat to those that focus on conventional generation. As renewable costs continue to decline, they weigh heavily on both peak and off-peak power prices. While gas-fired assets should be able to coexist with renewables for the foreseeable future in some regions, companies that rely on coal-fired generation will face the threat of significant asset retirements.

Market participants have long acknowledged the declining cost curve of battery storage. In our view, however, the more compelling reason for the uptake of the technology is its complementary role improving the economics of solar power generation. With annual investment set to surpass $3 billion in the coming years, this technology is now well set to disrupt conventional generation in the North American power sector.

Aneesh Prabhu.

标准普尔全球评分基础设施高级总监

Aneesh Prabhu是S&P全球评分的北美基础设施的高级总监和领导。

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